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Bundesliga
Referee: F Brych
Augsburg
T T S S U
1–1
Full-time
Hoffenheim
S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Augsburg Hoffenheim
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,7
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 83%
83%
83%
Average goals
3,7
4,0
Scored
2,0
1,7
Conceded
1,7
2,3
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Bundesliga · 10/10 matches
Win Ø 45%
30%
60%
Points per game
1,2
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 85%
80%
90%
Both score Ø 85%
80%
90%
Average goals
4,1
4,1
Scored
1,9
2,2
Conceded
2,2
1,9
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,96 xG 0,85
34% Possession 66%
11 Shots 12
6 Shots on target 6
0 Blocked shots 1
5 Goalkeeper saves 5
3 Corners 5
3 Offside 2
9 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Augsburg 11. · Hoffenheim 6.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Leverkusen 10 9 1 0 +20 +9.7 28
2 Bayern Munich 10 8 2 0 +31 +23.3 26
3 Stuttgart 10 7 0 3 +14 +12.7 21
4 Dortmund 10 6 3 1 +5 +4.0 21
5 RB Leipzig 10 6 2 2 +16 +4.1 20
6 Hoffenheim 10 6 0 4 +3 -0.7 18
7 Ein Frankfurt 10 4 5 1 +6 +1.2 17
8 Freiburg 10 4 2 4 -6 -0.1 14
9 M'gladbach 11 3 4 4 +0 -0.2 13
10 Wolfsburg 11 4 1 6 -5 -0.6 13
11 Augsburg 10 3 3 4 -3 +0.6 12
12 Werder Bremen 10 3 1 6 -4 -4.1 10
13 Heidenheim 10 3 1 6 -7 -11.8 10
14 Bochum 10 1 5 4 -14 -9.7 8
15 Darmstadt 10 2 1 7 -18 -11.8 7
16 Union Berlin 10 2 0 8 -11 -2.1 6
17 Mainz 10 1 3 6 -13 -5.5 6
18 FC Koln 10 1 2 7 -14 -8.8 5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Augsburg Hoffenheim
23′
W. Weghorst 0–1
M. Bülter
Fredrik Jensen ℹ️
VAR: Penalty cancelled
26′
Felix Uduokhai 🟨
44′
Half-time 1–1
1–1 E. Demirović
R. Vargas
53′
56′
🟨 Grischa Prömel
70′
🔁 J. Justvan
↦ I. Bebou
70′
🔁 A. Kramarić
↦ F. Becker
76′
🟨 Kevin Akpoguma
Iago 🔁
↦ M. Pedersen
76′
A. Engels 🔁
↦ R. Vargas
76′
K. Mbabu 🔁
↦ F. Jensen
82′
90′
🔁 B. Conté
↦ M. Beier
D. Beljo 🔁
↦ E. Demirović
93′
S. Michel 🔁
↦ P. Tietz
94′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Augsburg

4-2-3-1
1 F. Dahmen G
2 R. Gumny D
6 J. Gouweleeuw D
19 F. Uduokhai D
3 M. Pedersen D
8 E. Rexhbeçaj M
30 N. Dorsch M
24 F. Jensen M
9 E. Demirović M
16 R. Vargas M
21 P. Tietz F
Bench (9)
22 Iago
27 A. Engels
43 K. Mbabu
20 S. Michel
7 D. Beljo
14 M. Okugawa
40 T. Koubek
18 T. Breithaupt
23 M. Bauer

Coach: J. Thorup

Hoffenheim

3-1-4-2
1 O. Baumann G
5 O. Kabak D
22 K. Vogt D
25 K. Akpoguma D
16 A. Stach M
9 I. Bebou M
6 G. Prömel M
20 F. Becker M
21 M. Bülter M
14 M. Beier F
10 W. Weghorst F
Bench (9)
17 J. Justvan
27 A. Kramarić
31 B. Conté
41 A. Szalai
37 L. Philipp
39 T. Bischof
18 D. Samassékou
40 U. Tohumcu
23 J. Brooks

Coach: P. Matarazzo

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,60
U ✓
3,80
B
2,53
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,47
U2,5 ✓
2,69
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

F Brych · 113 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,10 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.