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2. Bundesliga

Ingolstadt

S T T T T

1–1

Full-time

Holstein Kiel

S U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ingolstadt Holstein Kiel

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

2,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,2

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 17%

11%

22%

Points per game

0,4

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

78%

89%

Both score Ø 39%

44%

33%

Average goals

3,2

3,1

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

2,6

2,1

Goal diff per game

-1,9

-1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

15 Shots 6

3 Shots on target 1

5 Corners 3

11 Free kicks against 13

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ingolstadt 18. · Holstein Kiel 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	St Pauli	9	6	1	2	+11	19
2	Regensburg	10	5	4	1	+10	19
3	Schalke 04	10	6	1	3	+6	19
4	Paderborn	10	5	3	2	+10	18
5	Nurnberg	9	3	6	0	+4	15
6	Heidenheim	9	4	3	2	+1	15
7	Hamburg	9	3	5	1	+4	14
8	Werder Bremen	9	4	2	3	+2	14
9	Darmstadt	9	4	1	4	+8	13
10	Karlsruhe	9	3	4	2	+3	13
11	Dresden	9	4	1	4	+2	13
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	9	3	2	4	-2	11
13	Hannover	10	3	2	5	-6	11
14	Hansa Rostock	9	3	1	5	-4	10
15	Holstein Kiel	9	2	2	5	-10	8
16	Sandhausen	9	2	1	6	-12	7
17	Erzgebirge Aue	9	0	4	5	-10	4
18	Ingolstadt	9	1	1	7	-17	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	St Pauli	5	5	0	0	+12	15
2	Regensburg	5	3	2	0	+7	11
3	Nurnberg	5	3	2	0	+4	11
4	Darmstadt	4	3	0	1	+8	9
5	Dresden	4	3	0	1	+5	9
6	Heidenheim	5	2	3	0	+2	9
7	Schalke 04	5	2	1	2	+2	7
8	Werder Bremen	5	2	1	2	+1	7
9	Hamburg	4	1	3	0	+1	6
10	Hannover	5	2	0	3	-3	6
11	Karlsruhe	4	1	2	1	+1	5
12	Paderborn	5	1	2	2	+0	5
13	Hansa Rostock	4	1	0	3	-5	3
14	Holstein Kiel	5	1	0	4	-8	3
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	4	0	2	2	-2	2
16	Erzgebirge Aue	5	0	2	3	-6	2
17	Ingolstadt	4	0	1	3	-5	1
18	Sandhausen	5	0	1	4	-11	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paderborn	5	4	1	0	+10	13
2	Schalke 04	5	4	0	1	+4	12
3	Fortuna Dusseldorf	5	3	0	2	+0	9
4	Hamburg	5	2	2	1	+3	8
5	Regensburg	5	2	2	1	+3	8
6	Karlsruhe	5	2	2	1	+2	8
7	Hansa Rostock	5	2	1	2	+1	7
8	Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	+1	7
9	Sandhausen	4	2	0	2	-1	6
10	Heidenheim	4	2	0	2	-1	6
11	Holstein Kiel	4	1	2	1	-2	5
12	Hannover	5	1	2	2	-3	5
13	Darmstadt	5	1	1	3	+0	4
14	Nurnberg	4	0	4	0	+0	4
15	St Pauli	4	1	1	2	-1	4
16	Dresden	5	1	1	3	-3	4
17	Ingolstadt	5	1	0	4	-12	3
18	Erzgebirge Aue	4	0	2	2	-4	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.