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Championship

Referee: J Gillett

Preston

T T T U T

0–1

Full-time

Derby

T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Preston Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

0,8

2,2

Conceded

2,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+1,0

This season — Championship · 39/39 matches

Win Ø 40%

41%

38%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

44%

54%

Both score Ø 57%

54%

59%

Average goals

2,6

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,4

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

54% Possession 46%

9 Shots 8

1 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 5

10 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Preston 8. · Derby 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	40	22	9	9	+27	75
2	West Brom	39	19	14	6	+26	71
3	Fulham	38	19	9	10	+11	66
4	Nott'm Forest	39	17	13	9	+12	64
5	Brentford	37	17	9	11	+31	60
6	Cardiff	39	15	15	9	+6	60
7	Swansea	38	14	15	9	+8	57
8	Preston	39	16	9	14	+3	57
9	Derby	39	15	12	12	+2	57
10	Blackburn	40	15	11	14	+5	56
11	Millwall	40	13	17	10	+3	56
12	Bristol City	39	15	10	14	-5	55
13	Sheffield Weds	39	14	10	15	-2	52
14	Wigan	40	13	11	16	-5	50
15	QPR	40	14	8	18	-7	50
16	Reading	40	13	10	17	+0	49
17	Birmingham	39	12	13	14	-9	49
18	Charlton	40	12	10	18	-8	46
19	Middlesbrough	39	10	14	15	-11	44
20	Stoke	40	12	7	21	-11	43
21	Hull	39	11	9	19	-15	42
22	Huddersfield	39	11	9	19	-17	42
23	Barnsley	40	10	11	19	-17	41
24	Luton	40	11	7	22	-27	40

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	20	12	5	3	+16	41
2	Derby	20	11	7	2	+16	40
3	Fulham	20	12	2	6	+9	38
4	Preston	20	11	3	6	+9	36
5	Cardiff	19	9	8	2	+11	35
6	Blackburn	20	9	8	3	+10	35
7	Brentford	17	9	5	3	+19	32
8	West Brom	19	8	8	3	+13	32
9	Millwall	20	8	8	4	+6	32
10	Nott'm Forest	19	9	4	6	+3	31
11	Wigan	20	8	6	6	+1	30
12	Swansea	19	8	5	6	+6	29
13	Charlton	20	8	5	7	+3	29
14	QPR	21	8	5	8	+2	29
15	Stoke	20	8	3	9	+3	27
16	Sheffield Weds	19	7	6	6	-5	27
17	Luton	19	7	5	7	+0	26
18	Bristol City	19	7	5	7	-3	26
19	Huddersfield	20	7	5	8	-3	26
20	Middlesbrough	20	6	8	6	-4	26
21	Barnsley	21	6	8	7	-5	26
22	Birmingham	19	6	6	7	-2	24
23	Reading	20	7	3	10	-4	24
24	Hull	20	6	3	11	-7	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	20	11	6	3	+13	39
2	Leeds	20	10	4	6	+11	34
3	Nott'm Forest	20	8	9	3	+9	33
4	Bristol City	20	8	5	7	-2	29
5	Brentford	20	8	4	8	+12	28
6	Swansea	19	6	10	3	+2	28
7	Fulham	18	7	7	4	+2	28
8	Reading	20	6	7	7	+4	25
9	Sheffield Weds	20	7	4	9	+3	25
10	Cardiff	20	6	7	7	-5	25
11	Birmingham	20	6	7	7	-7	25
12	Millwall	20	5	9	6	-3	24
13	Blackburn	20	6	3	11	-5	21
14	Preston	19	5	6	8	-6	21
15	Hull	19	5	6	8	-8	21
16	QPR	19	6	3	10	-9	21
17	Wigan	20	5	5	10	-6	20
18	Middlesbrough	19	4	6	9	-7	18
19	Charlton	20	4	5	11	-11	17
20	Derby	19	4	5	10	-14	17
21	Huddersfield	19	4	4	11	-14	16
22	Stoke	20	4	4	12	-14	16
23	Barnsley	19	4	3	12	-12	15
24	Luton	21	4	2	15	-27	14

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.