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Championship

Referee: G Eltringham

Preston

T U S T U

3–0

Full-time

Derby

T S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Preston Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,5

Scored

0,3

1,0

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,5

This season — Championship · 42/42 matches

Win Ø 30%

33%

26%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 37%

45%

29%

Both score Ø 32%

33%

31%

Average goals

2,3

1,9

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

34% Possession 66%

10 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 7

5 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Preston 17. · Derby 21. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	43	27	9	7	+34	90
2	Watford	43	25	10	8	+32	85
3	Bournemouth	41	21	11	9	+29	74
4	Brentford	40	19	14	7	+30	71
5	Barnsley	40	21	8	11	+12	71
6	Swansea	39	20	9	10	+15	69
7	Reading	42	19	10	13	+11	67
8	Cardiff	43	16	13	14	+12	61
9	Millwall	42	14	17	11	+1	59
10	QPR	42	16	11	15	-1	59
11	Middlesbrough	42	16	9	17	+2	57
12	Stoke	42	14	14	14	-1	56
13	Luton	41	16	8	17	-10	56
14	Bristol City	42	15	6	21	-15	51
15	Blackburn	42	13	11	18	+6	50
16	Nott'm Forest	42	12	13	17	-7	49
17	Preston	42	14	7	21	-14	49
18	Coventry	42	12	12	18	-17	48
19	Birmingham	42	12	12	18	-18	48
20	Huddersfield	42	12	11	19	-17	47
21	Derby	42	11	10	21	-17	43
22	Sheffield Weds	42	11	9	22	-20	42
23	Rotherham	40	11	6	23	-13	39
24	Wycombe	42	8	10	24	-34	34

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	21	17	2	2	+29	53
2	Norwich	22	13	6	3	+21	45
3	Bournemouth	21	13	3	5	+19	42
4	Reading	21	12	2	7	+10	38
5	Barnsley	20	11	5	4	+9	38
6	Swansea	20	10	6	4	+9	36
7	Brentford	19	9	8	2	+15	35
8	Middlesbrough	21	10	4	7	+6	34
9	QPR	21	10	4	7	+5	34
10	Coventry	21	9	7	5	+4	34
11	Stoke	21	9	5	7	+4	32
12	Huddersfield	21	8	6	7	+6	30
13	Luton	20	8	6	6	+2	30
14	Sheffield Weds	21	7	7	7	+4	28
15	Blackburn	21	7	7	7	+3	28
16	Millwall	21	6	10	5	+0	28
17	Cardiff	21	7	5	9	+10	26
18	Nott'm Forest	21	6	7	8	-2	25
19	Derby	21	6	6	9	-5	24
20	Bristol City	21	7	3	11	-9	24
21	Birmingham	21	6	3	12	-15	21
22	Preston	21	5	5	11	-8	20
23	Wycombe	21	5	5	11	-13	20
24	Rotherham	21	5	3	13	-8	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	21	14	3	4	+13	45
2	Brentford	21	10	6	5	+15	36
3	Cardiff	22	9	8	5	+2	35
4	Swansea	19	10	3	6	+6	33
5	Barnsley	20	10	3	7	+3	33
6	Bournemouth	20	8	8	4	+10	32
7	Watford	22	8	8	6	+3	32
8	Millwall	21	8	7	6	+1	31
9	Reading	21	7	8	6	+1	29
10	Preston	21	9	2	10	-6	29
11	Birmingham	21	6	9	6	-3	27
12	Bristol City	21	8	3	10	-6	27
13	Luton	21	8	2	11	-12	26
14	QPR	21	6	7	8	-6	25
15	Stoke	21	5	9	7	-5	24
16	Nott'm Forest	21	6	6	9	-5	24
17	Middlesbrough	21	6	5	10	-4	23
18	Blackburn	21	6	4	11	+3	22
19	Rotherham	19	6	3	10	-5	21
20	Derby	21	5	4	12	-12	19
21	Huddersfield	21	4	5	12	-23	17
22	Wycombe	21	3	5	13	-21	14
23	Coventry	21	3	5	13	-21	14
24	Sheffield Weds	21	4	2	15	-24	14

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.