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Championship

Referee: L Doughty

Derby

T U U U T

0–2

Full-time

Barnsley

U U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Barnsley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

1,5

2,8

Scored

0,5

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,2

This season — Championship · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 15%

10%

20%

Points per game

0,6

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 35%

20%

50%

Both score Ø 40%

40%

Average goals

1,9

2,3

Scored

0,5

1,0

Conceded

1,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

71% Possession 29%

9 Shots 17

3 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 3

2 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 24. · Barnsley 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Reading	11	7	1	3	+5	22
2	Bristol City	11	6	2	3	+4	20
3	Swansea	9	5	3	1	+7	18
4	Norwich	10	5	3	2	+4	18
5	Watford	10	5	3	2	+4	18
6	Stoke	11	5	3	3	+3	18
7	Bournemouth	10	4	5	1	+4	17
8	Middlesbrough	10	4	5	1	+4	17
9	Millwall	10	4	4	2	+2	16
10	Luton	10	5	1	4	-2	16
11	Brentford	9	4	2	3	+5	14
12	Preston	10	4	1	5	+2	13
13	Cardiff	11	3	4	4	+1	13
14	Birmingham	10	3	4	3	+0	13
15	Huddersfield	10	4	1	5	-1	13
16	QPR	10	3	4	3	-2	13
17	Blackburn	10	3	2	5	+5	11
18	Sheffield Weds	10	3	2	5	-4	11
19	Barnsley	10	2	4	4	-3	10
20	Rotherham	10	2	3	5	-3	9
21	Nott'm Forest	10	2	3	5	-5	9
22	Coventry	10	2	2	6	-10	8
23	Wycombe	10	2	1	7	-11	7
24	Derby	10	1	3	6	-9	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	5	4	1	0	+5	13
2	Reading	6	4	0	2	+1	12
3	Middlesbrough	5	3	2	0	+4	11
4	Bournemouth	5	3	2	0	+3	11
5	Swansea	5	3	1	1	+4	10
6	Barnsley	5	2	2	1	+3	8
7	QPR	5	2	2	1	+1	8
8	Norwich	5	2	2	1	+1	8
9	Stoke	5	2	2	1	+0	8
10	Brentford	4	2	1	1	+3	7
11	Bristol City	5	2	1	2	+0	7
12	Birmingham	5	2	1	2	+0	7
13	Luton	5	2	1	2	-2	7
14	Coventry	5	2	1	2	-4	7
15	Millwall	5	1	3	1	-1	6
16	Huddersfield	5	2	0	3	-1	6
17	Blackburn	5	1	2	2	+2	5
18	Cardiff	6	1	2	3	-1	5
19	Sheffield Weds	5	1	2	2	-1	5
20	Nott'm Forest	5	1	2	2	-2	5
21	Rotherham	5	1	1	3	+0	4
22	Wycombe	5	1	1	3	-3	4
23	Derby	5	0	1	4	-8	1
24	Preston	5	0	0	5	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	5	4	1	0	+8	13
2	Bristol City	6	4	1	1	+4	13
3	Reading	5	3	1	1	+4	10
4	Stoke	6	3	1	2	+3	10
5	Norwich	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	Millwall	5	3	1	1	+3	10
7	Luton	5	3	0	2	+0	9
8	Swansea	4	2	2	0	+3	8
9	Cardiff	5	2	2	1	+2	8
10	Brentford	5	2	1	2	+2	7
11	Huddersfield	5	2	1	2	+0	7
12	Blackburn	5	2	0	3	+3	6
13	Bournemouth	5	1	3	1	+1	6
14	Birmingham	5	1	3	1	+0	6
15	Middlesbrough	5	1	3	1	+0	6
16	Sheffield Weds	5	2	0	3	-3	6
17	Derby	5	1	2	2	-1	5
18	Watford	5	1	2	2	-1	5
19	QPR	5	1	2	2	-3	5
20	Rotherham	5	1	2	2	-3	5
21	Nott'm Forest	5	1	1	3	-3	4
22	Wycombe	5	1	0	4	-8	3
23	Barnsley	5	0	2	3	-6	2
24	Coventry	5	0	1	4	-6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.