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Championship

Referee: D Whitestone

Derby

U T T U S

2–1

Full-time

Barnsley

U S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Barnsley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,0

3,3

Scored

0,7

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,3

This season — Championship · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 22%

28%

16%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

40%

56%

Both score Ø 58%

48%

68%

Average goals

2,3

3,2

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

45% Possession 55%

15 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 6

0 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 17. · Barnsley 23. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	26	15	7	4	+22	52
2	West Brom	26	14	10	2	+20	52
3	Nott'm Forest	25	12	7	6	+9	43
4	Fulham	24	12	5	7	+11	41
5	Millwall	26	10	10	6	+2	40
6	Sheffield Weds	26	11	6	9	+11	39
7	Hull	26	11	6	9	+6	39
8	Preston	26	11	6	9	+4	39
9	Swansea	23	10	8	5	+6	38
10	Bristol City	26	10	8	8	-1	38
11	Blackburn	26	10	6	10	+0	36
12	Cardiff	25	9	9	7	-2	36
13	Reading	25	10	5	10	+5	35
14	QPR	26	10	5	11	-4	35
15	Brentford	23	10	4	9	+15	34
16	Middlesbrough	26	8	9	9	-6	33
17	Derby	25	7	9	9	-9	30
18	Birmingham	26	8	5	13	-12	29
19	Charlton	25	7	7	11	-2	28
20	Huddersfield	26	7	7	12	-12	28
21	Stoke	26	7	3	16	-9	24
22	Wigan	26	5	8	13	-15	23
23	Barnsley	25	4	9	12	-15	21
24	Luton	26	6	3	17	-24	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	14	9	2	3	+12	29
2	Fulham	14	8	2	4	+9	26
3	Leeds	12	7	4	1	+11	25
4	Millwall	13	7	4	2	+7	25
5	West Brom	13	6	6	1	+11	24
6	Cardiff	11	7	3	1	+9	24
7	Derby	13	6	5	2	+6	23
8	Blackburn	13	6	5	2	+5	23
9	Sheffield Weds	13	6	4	3	+4	22
10	Middlesbrough	13	6	4	3	+1	22
11	Hull	13	6	2	5	+5	20
12	Nott'm Forest	12	6	2	4	+1	20
13	QPR	14	5	4	5	+1	19
14	Bristol City	13	5	4	4	+1	19
15	Brentford	10	5	3	2	+11	18
16	Swansea	12	5	3	4	+4	18
17	Charlton	13	5	3	5	+2	18
18	Reading	12	6	0	6	+2	18
19	Birmingham	13	5	2	6	-1	17
20	Wigan	12	4	4	4	-3	16
21	Huddersfield	14	4	4	6	-5	16
22	Luton	12	4	3	5	-1	15
23	Barnsley	13	3	6	4	-3	15
24	Stoke	13	4	2	7	-3	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	13	8	4	1	+9	28
2	Leeds	14	8	3	3	+11	27
3	Nott'm Forest	13	6	5	2	+8	23
4	Swansea	11	5	5	1	+2	20
5	Hull	13	5	4	4	+1	19
6	Bristol City	13	5	4	4	-2	19
7	Sheffield Weds	13	5	2	6	+7	17
8	Reading	13	4	5	4	+3	17
9	Brentford	13	5	1	7	+4	16
10	QPR	12	5	1	6	-5	16
11	Fulham	10	4	3	3	+2	15
12	Millwall	13	3	6	4	-5	15
13	Blackburn	13	4	1	8	-5	13
14	Huddersfield	12	3	3	6	-7	12
15	Cardiff	14	2	6	6	-11	12
16	Birmingham	13	3	3	7	-11	12
17	Middlesbrough	13	2	5	6	-7	11
18	Charlton	12	2	4	6	-4	10
19	Stoke	13	3	1	9	-6	10
20	Preston	12	2	4	6	-8	10
21	Wigan	14	1	4	9	-12	7
22	Derby	12	1	4	7	-15	7
23	Barnsley	12	1	3	8	-12	6
24	Luton	14	2	0	12	-23	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.