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Championship

Referee: Paul Tierney

Derby

S S S S T

2–0

Full-time

QPR

U S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby QPR

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,5

This season — Championship · 15/17 matches

Win Ø 38%

47%

29%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

47%

53%

Both score Ø 66%

60%

71%

Average goals

2,8

2,6

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

52% Possession 48%

13 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 2

2 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 9. · QPR 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	17	12	2	3	+16	38
2	Sheffield United	17	12	0	5	+12	36
3	Cardiff	17	10	4	3	+11	34
4	Bristol City	17	8	7	2	+10	31
5	Leeds	17	8	2	7	+6	26
6	Aston Villa	15	7	4	4	+7	25
7	Middlesbrough	16	7	4	5	+7	25
8	Ipswich	16	8	1	7	+4	25
9	Derby	15	7	4	4	+4	25
10	Sheffield Weds	17	6	6	5	+2	24
11	Nott'm Forest	17	8	0	9	-2	24
12	Norwich	17	6	5	6	-5	23
13	Brentford	17	5	7	5	+2	22
14	Preston	17	5	7	5	+0	22
15	QPR	17	5	6	6	-4	21
16	Barnsley	16	5	5	6	+1	20
17	Fulham	15	4	7	4	+0	19
18	Millwall	17	4	6	7	+0	18
19	Reading	16	5	3	8	-3	18
20	Hull	17	4	5	8	-2	17
21	Birmingham	17	4	3	10	-16	15
22	Burton Albion	17	3	4	10	-23	13
23	Bolton	17	2	6	9	-16	12
24	Sunderland	17	1	8	8	-11	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cardiff	9	6	3	0	+12	21
2	Sheffield United	8	7	0	1	+10	21
3	Wolves	8	6	1	1	+7	19
4	QPR	9	5	2	2	+4	17
5	Sheffield Weds	9	4	4	1	+5	16
6	Ipswich	8	5	0	3	+6	15
7	Bristol City	8	4	3	1	+5	15
8	Nott'm Forest	8	5	0	3	+4	15
9	Leeds	9	4	2	3	+6	14
10	Middlesbrough	8	4	2	2	+3	14
11	Birmingham	9	4	2	3	-2	14
12	Derby	7	4	1	2	+6	13
13	Millwall	8	4	1	3	+4	13
14	Preston	9	3	4	2	+2	13
15	Hull	9	3	2	4	+7	11
16	Aston Villa	6	3	2	1	+3	11
17	Brentford	8	2	5	1	+2	11
18	Barnsley	8	3	2	3	+1	11
19	Norwich	9	2	4	3	-2	10
20	Fulham	8	1	5	2	-2	8
21	Reading	8	2	2	4	-3	8
22	Bolton	8	2	1	5	-7	7
23	Burton Albion	9	2	1	6	-12	7
24	Sunderland	9	0	4	5	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	9	6	1	2	+9	19
2	Bristol City	9	4	4	1	+5	16
3	Sheffield United	9	5	0	4	+2	15
4	Aston Villa	9	4	2	3	+4	14
5	Cardiff	8	4	1	3	-1	13
6	Norwich	8	4	1	3	-3	13
7	Leeds	8	4	0	4	+0	12
8	Derby	8	3	3	2	-2	12
9	Middlesbrough	8	3	2	3	+4	11
10	Fulham	7	3	2	2	+2	11
11	Brentford	9	3	2	4	+0	11
12	Reading	8	3	1	4	+0	10
13	Ipswich	8	3	1	4	-2	10
14	Barnsley	8	2	3	3	+0	9
15	Preston	8	2	3	3	-2	9
16	Nott'm Forest	9	3	0	6	-6	9
17	Sheffield Weds	8	2	2	4	-3	8
18	Sunderland	8	1	4	3	-5	7
19	Hull	8	1	3	4	-9	6
20	Burton Albion	8	1	3	4	-11	6
21	Millwall	9	0	5	4	-4	5
22	Bolton	9	0	5	4	-9	5
23	QPR	8	0	4	4	-8	4
24	Birmingham	8	0	1	7	-14	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.