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Premier League

Referee: Kevin Friend

Norwich

S T S T T

3–2

Full-time

Man City

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Norwich Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,5

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,7

3,8

Scored

1,7

3,2

Conceded

2,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+2,5

This season — Premier League · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 50%

25%

75%

Points per game

0,8

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 88%

75%

100%

Both score Ø 63%

75%

50%

Average goals

4,0

4,3

Scored

1,5

3,5

Conceded

2,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+2,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

31% Possession 69%

7 Shots 25

3 Shots on target 8

1 Blocked shots 11

6 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 16

1 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 7

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Norwich 18. · Man City 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	5	5	0	0	+11	15
2	Man City	4	3	1	0	+11	10
3	Tottenham	5	2	2	1	+5	8
4	Man United	5	2	2	1	+4	8
5	Leicester	5	2	2	1	+2	8
6	Chelsea	5	2	2	1	+0	8
7	Arsenal	4	2	1	1	+0	7
8	Everton	4	2	1	1	+0	7
9	West Ham	4	2	1	1	-1	7
10	Southampton	5	2	1	2	-1	7
11	Crystal Palace	5	2	1	2	-3	7
12	Burnley	5	1	2	2	-1	5
13	Sheffield United	5	1	2	2	-1	5
14	Brighton	5	1	2	2	-3	5
15	Bournemouth	4	1	1	2	-3	4
16	Newcastle	5	1	1	3	-4	4
17	Aston Villa	4	1	0	3	-2	3
18	Norwich	4	1	0	3	-4	3
19	Wolves	5	0	3	2	-4	3
20	Watford	4	0	1	3	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Tottenham	3	2	0	1	+5	6
3	Man United	3	2	0	1	+4	6
4	Everton	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Man City	2	1	1	0	+4	4
6	Leicester	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Arsenal	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Crystal Palace	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Norwich	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Aston Villa	2	1	0	1	+1	3
11	Burnley	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Sheffield United	3	1	0	2	-1	3
13	West Ham	2	1	0	1	-3	3
14	Chelsea	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Brighton	3	0	2	1	-2	2
16	Wolves	3	0	2	1	-3	2
17	Southampton	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Newcastle	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-2	1
20	Watford	2	0	0	2	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Chelsea	3	2	0	1	+0	6
4	Southampton	3	2	0	1	+0	6
5	West Ham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Leicester	3	1	1	1	+0	4
7	Brighton	2	1	0	1	-1	3
8	Bournemouth	2	1	0	1	-1	3
9	Arsenal	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	Newcastle	3	1	0	2	-3	3
11	Crystal Palace	3	1	0	2	-4	3
12	Tottenham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Sheffield United	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Man United	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Burnley	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	Wolves	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Watford	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Everton	2	0	1	1	-2	1
19	Aston Villa	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	Norwich	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.