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Premier League
Referee: Michael Oliver
Brighton
T U T U U
1–4
Full-time
Man City
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Man City
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
0,5
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 17%
17%
17%
Both score Ø 25%
33%
17%
Average goals
2,0
1,8
Scored
0,3
1,7
Conceded
1,7
0,2
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+1,5
This season — Premier League · 37/37 matches
Win Ø 54%
24%
84%
Points per game
1,0
2,6
Over 2.5 Ø 53%
46%
59%
Both score Ø 47%
51%
43%
Average goals
2,4
3,1
Scored
0,9
2,5
Conceded
1,5
0,6
Goal diff per game
-0,6
+1,9
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

23% Possession 77%
6 Shots 20
2 Shots on target 9
1 Blocked shots 8
5 Goalkeeper saves 1
2 Corners 6
1 Offside 1
12 Free kicks against 8
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Brighton 17. · Man City 1.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Man City 37 31 2 4 +69 95
2 Liverpool 37 29 7 1 +65 94
3 Chelsea 37 21 8 8 +24 71
4 Tottenham 37 23 1 13 +28 70
5 Arsenal 37 20 7 10 +20 67
6 Man United 37 19 9 9 +13 66
7 Wolves 37 16 9 12 +3 57
8 Everton 37 15 8 14 +8 53
9 Leicester 37 15 6 16 +3 51
10 Watford 37 14 8 15 -4 50
11 West Ham 37 14 7 16 -6 49
12 Crystal Palace 37 13 7 17 -4 46
13 Bournemouth 37 13 6 18 -12 45
14 Newcastle 37 11 9 17 -10 42
15 Burnley 37 11 7 19 -21 40
16 Southampton 37 9 11 17 -20 38
17 Brighton 37 9 9 19 -22 36
18 Cardiff 37 9 4 24 -37 31
19 Fulham 37 7 5 25 -43 26
20 Huddersfield 37 3 6 28 -54 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Brighton Man City
1–0 G. Murray
P. Groß
27′
28′
S. Agüero 1–1
David Silva
38′
A. Laporte 1–2
R. Mahrez
Half-time 1–3
63′
R. Mahrez 1–3
David Silva
J. Locadia 🔁
↦ A. Jahanbakhsh
67′
F. Andone 🔁
↦ G. Murray
68′
72′
İ. Gündoğan 1–4
78′
🔁 K. De Bruyne
↦ David Silva
Martín Montoya 🔁
↦ Bruno Saltor
84′
86′
🔁 N. Otamendi
↦ V. Kompany
88′
🔁 Danilo
↦ K. Walker
Full-time 1–4

Line-ups

Brighton

4-5-1
1 M. Ryan G
2 Bruno Saltor D
4 S. Duffy D
5 L. Dunk D
30 Bernardo D
7 B. Kayal M
13 P. Groß M
11 A. Knockaert M
8 Y. Bissouma M
17 G. Murray F
16 A. Jahanbakhsh M
Bench (7)
9 J. Locadia
10 F. Andone
22 Martín Montoya
33 D. Burn
49 J. Molumby
27 D. Button
3 G. Bong

Coach: C. Hughton

Man City

4-4-1-1
31 Ederson Moraes G
4 V. Kompany D
2 K. Walker D
14 A. Laporte D
21 David Silva M
8 İ. Gündoğan M
26 R. Mahrez M
35 O. Zinchenko D
20 Bernardo Silva M
10 S. Agüero F
7 R. Sterling F
Bench (7)
17 K. De Bruyne
30 N. Otamendi
3 Danilo
5 J. Stones
49 A. Murić
19 L. Sané
33 Gabriel Jesus

Coach: Guardiola

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Michael Oliver · 163 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
18,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.