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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Guimaraes

S U U T U

5–1

Full-time

Aves

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes Aves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,2

3,7

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

1,3

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 13%

25%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

25%

100%

Both score Ø 88%

75%

100%

Average goals

2,3

4,5

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

1,5

2,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

58% Possession 42%

18 Shots 12

8 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 6

12 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Guimaraes 16. · Aves 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Famalicao	5	4	1	0	+6	13
2	Porto	5	4	0	1	+12	12
3	Benfica	5	4	0	1	+11	12
4	Boavista	4	2	2	0	+2	8
5	Moreirense	5	2	2	1	+2	8
6	Rio Ave	4	2	1	1	+4	7
7	Sp Lisbon	4	2	1	1	+2	7
8	Tondela	5	1	3	1	+0	6
9	Setubal	5	1	3	1	-3	6
10	Vitoria Setubal	5	1	3	1	-3	6
11	Gil Vicente	6	1	3	2	-4	6
12	Santa Clara	4	1	2	1	-1	5
13	Maritimo	4	1	1	2	-2	4
14	Portimonense	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Sp Braga	6	1	1	4	-5	4
16	Guimaraes	4	0	3	1	-3	3
17	Aves	4	1	0	3	-4	3
18	Belenenses	4	0	2	2	-3	2
19	Pacos Ferreira	5	0	1	4	-9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	3	3	0	0	+11	9
2	Benfica	3	2	0	1	+5	6
3	Moreirense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Famalicao	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Gil Vicente	4	1	3	0	+1	6
6	Setubal	3	1	2	0	+1	5
7	Vitoria Setubal	3	1	2	0	+1	5
8	Rio Ave	2	1	1	0	+4	4
9	Boavista	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Aves	2	1	0	1	+1	3
11	Sp Lisbon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Sp Braga	2	1	0	1	-2	3
13	Guimaraes	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Maritimo	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Tondela	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Portimonense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Santa Clara	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Pacos Ferreira	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Belenenses	2	0	0	2	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Famalicao	3	2	1	0	+3	7
2	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Tondela	3	1	2	0	+1	5
4	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Boavista	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Santa Clara	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Porto	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Portimonense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Belenenses	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Moreirense	3	0	2	1	-2	2
13	Sp Braga	4	0	1	3	-3	1
14	Guimaraes	2	0	1	1	-3	1
15	Setubal	2	0	1	1	-4	1
16	Vitoria Setubal	2	0	1	1	-4	1
17	Pacos Ferreira	3	0	1	2	-7	1
18	Aves	2	0	0	2	-5	0
19	Gil Vicente	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.