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Championship

Referee: J Simpson

QPR

U T T S S

3–2

Full-time

Luton

T T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

QPR Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

This season — Championship · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

54% Possession 46%

18 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

4 Corners 5

2 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match QPR 8. · Luton 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Swansea	6	5	1	0	+8	16
2	Charlton	6	4	2	0	+6	14
3	Leeds	6	4	1	1	+7	13
4	West Brom	7	3	4	0	+3	13
5	Bristol City	6	3	2	1	+3	11
6	Fulham	6	3	1	2	+5	10
7	Preston	6	3	1	2	+4	10
8	QPR	6	3	1	2	+0	10
9	Birmingham	6	3	1	2	-2	10
10	Nott'm Forest	6	2	3	1	+3	9
11	Sheffield Weds	6	3	0	3	+2	9
12	Millwall	6	2	3	1	-2	9
13	Cardiff	6	2	2	2	-2	8
14	Brentford	6	2	1	3	+1	7
15	Luton	6	2	1	3	+0	7
16	Reading	6	2	1	3	+0	7
17	Blackburn	6	2	1	3	-2	7
18	Derby	7	1	4	2	-3	7
19	Middlesbrough	6	1	3	2	-1	6
20	Hull	6	1	2	3	-3	5
21	Barnsley	6	1	2	3	-5	5
22	Wigan	6	1	1	4	-7	4
23	Huddersfield	6	0	1	5	-6	1
24	Stoke	6	0	1	5	-9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Swansea	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Fulham	4	2	1	1	+5	7
4	Charlton	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Birmingham	3	2	1	0	+3	7
6	Millwall	3	2	1	0	+2	7
7	Sheffield Weds	3	2	0	1	+2	6
8	Cardiff	2	2	0	0	+2	6
9	West Brom	3	1	2	0	+1	5
10	Nott'm Forest	3	1	1	1	+2	4
11	Brentford	3	1	1	1	+2	4
12	Luton	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	QPR	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Bristol City	3	1	1	1	+0	4
15	Leeds	3	1	1	1	+0	4
16	Middlesbrough	3	1	1	1	+0	4
17	Blackburn	3	1	1	1	+0	4
18	Barnsley	3	1	1	1	-1	4
19	Wigan	3	1	1	1	-1	4
20	Reading	3	1	0	2	-1	3
21	Derby	4	0	3	1	-1	3
22	Hull	3	1	0	2	-2	3
23	Stoke	3	0	1	2	-4	1
24	Huddersfield	3	0	0	3	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	West Brom	4	2	2	0	+2	8
3	Bristol City	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	Charlton	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Swansea	3	2	1	0	+3	7
6	QPR	3	2	0	1	+0	6
7	Nott'm Forest	3	1	2	0	+1	5
8	Reading	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	Derby	3	1	1	1	-2	4
10	Luton	3	1	0	2	+0	3
11	Sheffield Weds	3	1	0	2	+0	3
12	Fulham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Brentford	3	1	0	2	-1	3
14	Blackburn	3	1	0	2	-2	3
15	Birmingham	3	1	0	2	-5	3
16	Middlesbrough	3	0	2	1	-1	2
17	Hull	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Cardiff	4	0	2	2	-4	2
19	Millwall	3	0	2	1	-4	2
20	Preston	3	0	1	2	-2	1
21	Huddersfield	3	0	1	2	-2	1
22	Barnsley	3	0	1	2	-4	1
23	Stoke	3	0	0	3	-5	0
24	Wigan	3	0	0	3	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.