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Championship

Referee: Andy Davies

Newcastle

S S S T T

4–0

Full-time

Birmingham

U U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,5

This season — Championship · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 55%

68%

42%

Points per game

2,1

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

47%

Both score Ø 50%

42%

58%

Average goals

2,8

2,4

Scored

1,9

1,3

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

62% Possession 38%

20 Shots 5

10 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 1

2 Offside 0

17 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 2. · Birmingham 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	20	12	6	2	+19	42
2	Newcastle	19	13	1	5	+21	40
3	Reading	18	10	4	4	+6	34
4	Leeds	20	10	2	8	+1	32
5	Birmingham	19	8	7	4	+2	31
6	Norwich	19	9	3	7	+4	30
7	Huddersfield	18	9	3	6	-2	30
8	Derby	19	8	5	6	+4	29
9	Sheffield Weds	18	8	4	6	+0	28
10	Bristol City	19	8	3	8	+4	27
11	Fulham	18	6	7	5	+4	25
12	Barnsley	19	7	4	8	+3	25
13	Nott'm Forest	19	7	4	8	+1	25
14	Preston	19	7	4	8	+1	25
15	Aston Villa	19	5	10	4	+1	25
16	Ipswich	19	6	6	7	-2	24
17	QPR	19	6	5	8	-8	23
18	Brentford	19	6	4	9	-2	22
19	Burton Albion	19	5	7	7	-4	22
20	Wolves	19	5	6	8	-3	21
21	Blackburn	19	5	5	9	-7	20
22	Cardiff	19	5	4	10	-12	19
23	Wigan	19	4	6	9	-5	18
24	Rotherham	19	1	4	14	-26	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	11	8	2	1	+16	26
2	Reading	10	6	3	1	+8	21
3	Norwich	9	6	1	2	+10	19
4	Bristol City	9	6	1	2	+5	19
5	Huddersfield	8	6	1	1	+5	19
6	Newcastle	9	6	0	3	+8	18
7	Birmingham	10	5	3	2	+3	18
8	Sheffield Weds	9	6	0	3	+2	18
9	Aston Villa	9	4	5	0	+7	17
10	Burton Albion	9	5	2	2	+6	17
11	Nott'm Forest	9	5	2	2	+5	17
12	Leeds	10	5	2	3	+3	17
13	Ipswich	10	4	4	2	+5	16
14	Derby	10	4	3	3	+3	15
15	Brentford	9	4	2	3	+6	14
16	Preston	10	4	2	4	+4	14
17	Blackburn	10	3	4	3	-1	13
18	Barnsley	10	3	3	4	-1	12
19	QPR	10	3	3	4	-6	12
20	Cardiff	10	3	2	5	-5	11
21	Fulham	9	2	4	3	+0	10
22	Wigan	9	2	3	4	-2	9
23	Wolves	9	2	2	5	-5	8
24	Rotherham	9	1	3	5	-5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	10	7	1	2	+13	22
2	Brighton	9	4	4	1	+3	16
3	Fulham	9	4	3	2	+4	15
4	Leeds	10	5	0	5	-2	15
5	Derby	9	4	2	3	+1	14
6	Barnsley	9	4	1	4	+4	13
7	Wolves	10	3	4	3	+2	13
8	Birmingham	9	3	4	2	-1	13
9	Reading	8	4	1	3	-2	13
10	QPR	9	3	2	4	-2	11
11	Preston	9	3	2	4	-3	11
12	Norwich	10	3	2	5	-6	11
13	Huddersfield	10	3	2	5	-7	11
14	Sheffield Weds	9	2	4	3	-2	10
15	Wigan	10	2	3	5	-3	9
16	Bristol City	10	2	2	6	-1	8
17	Nott'm Forest	10	2	2	6	-4	8
18	Aston Villa	10	1	5	4	-6	8
19	Cardiff	9	2	2	5	-7	8
20	Ipswich	9	2	2	5	-7	8
21	Brentford	10	2	2	6	-8	8
22	Blackburn	9	2	1	6	-6	7
23	Burton Albion	10	0	5	5	-10	5
24	Rotherham	10	0	1	9	-21	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.