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Ligue 1

Referee: Amaury Delerue

Toulouse

U T U T T

1–0

Full-time

Montpellier

T U S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Montpellier

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,2

3,8

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

1,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 29%

36%

21%

Points per game

1,4

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 68%

57%

79%

Average goals

2,1

3,4

Scored

1,2

1,4

Conceded

0,9

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

45% Possession 55%

5 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 6

4 Offside 5

14 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 9. · Montpellier 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	15	10	3	2	+28	33
2	Nice	14	10	3	1	+16	33
3	Paris SG	14	10	2	2	+20	32
4	Rennes	15	7	3	5	-3	24
5	Guingamp	14	6	5	3	+5	23
6	Bordeaux	14	6	5	3	+3	23
7	Lyon	14	7	1	6	+4	22
8	St Etienne	14	5	6	3	+4	21
9	Toulouse	14	5	4	5	+4	19
10	Angers	14	5	3	6	-1	18
11	Metz	14	5	3	6	-9	18
12	Marseille	14	4	5	5	-4	17
13	Montpellier	14	3	7	4	-7	16
14	Dijon	15	3	6	6	-3	15
15	Lille	15	4	2	9	-7	14
16	Caen	15	4	2	9	-14	14
17	Bastia	14	3	4	7	-3	13
18	Nantes	14	3	4	7	-9	13
19	Nancy	14	3	4	7	-11	13
20	Lorient	15	3	2	10	-13	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	8	6	2	0	+12	20
2	Rennes	8	6	2	0	+8	20
3	Monaco	7	6	1	0	+20	19
4	Paris SG	7	5	2	0	+14	17
5	Marseille	7	4	3	0	+5	15
6	Guingamp	6	4	2	0	+4	14
7	Bordeaux	7	4	2	1	+3	14
8	Dijon	8	3	4	1	+5	13
9	Caen	7	4	1	2	-3	13
10	Toulouse	6	4	0	2	+6	12
11	Lyon	7	4	0	3	+4	12
12	St Etienne	7	3	3	1	+4	12
13	Montpellier	7	3	3	1	+3	12
14	Lille	8	4	0	4	-1	12
15	Angers	7	3	2	2	+2	11
16	Lorient	8	3	1	4	-6	10
17	Bastia	7	2	3	2	+0	9
18	Metz	7	2	2	3	-9	8
19	Nancy	7	2	1	4	-4	7
20	Nantes	7	1	3	3	-4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	5	0	2	+6	15
2	Monaco	8	4	2	2	+8	14
3	Nice	6	4	1	1	+4	13
4	Lyon	7	3	1	3	+0	10
5	Metz	7	3	1	3	+0	10
6	Guingamp	8	2	3	3	+1	9
7	Bordeaux	7	2	3	2	+0	9
8	St Etienne	7	2	3	2	+0	9
9	Toulouse	8	1	4	3	-2	7
10	Angers	7	2	1	4	-3	7
11	Nantes	7	2	1	4	-5	7
12	Nancy	7	1	3	3	-7	6
13	Bastia	7	1	1	5	-3	4
14	Montpellier	7	0	4	3	-10	4
15	Rennes	7	1	1	5	-11	4
16	Lille	7	0	2	5	-6	2
17	Dijon	7	0	2	5	-8	2
18	Marseille	7	0	2	5	-9	2
19	Lorient	7	0	1	6	-7	1
20	Caen	8	0	1	7	-11	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.