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Ligue 1

Referee: Sébastien Desiage

Toulouse

T S U T U

1–2

Full-time

Metz

T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Metz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,0

2,7

Scored

1,2

0,5

Conceded

0,8

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,7

This season — Ligue 1 · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 38%

42%

33%

Points per game

1,6

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 38%

58%

17%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

1,3

0,9

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

56% Possession 44%

15 Shots 4

4 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 0

0 Offside 4

13 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 7. · Metz 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	13	9	2	2	+24	29
2	Paris SG	13	9	2	2	+19	29
3	Nice	12	9	2	1	+15	29
4	Lyon	13	7	1	5	+5	22
5	Guingamp	12	6	3	3	+5	21
6	Rennes	12	6	2	4	-3	20
7	Toulouse	12	5	4	3	+6	19
8	Bordeaux	12	5	4	3	+2	19
9	St Etienne	12	4	6	2	+4	18
10	Angers	12	5	2	5	+0	17
11	Dijon	12	3	5	4	-1	14
12	Marseille	12	3	5	4	-1	14
13	Montpellier	12	3	5	4	-7	14
14	Metz	12	4	2	6	-10	14
15	Caen	12	4	1	7	-11	13
16	Nantes	13	3	3	7	-9	12
17	Bastia	12	3	2	7	-3	11
18	Lille	13	3	1	9	-9	10
19	Nancy	12	2	3	7	-12	9
20	Lorient	13	2	1	10	-14	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	7	6	1	0	+12	19
2	Paris SG	7	5	2	0	+14	17
3	Monaco	6	5	1	0	+16	16
4	Rennes	6	5	1	0	+7	16
5	Guingamp	5	4	1	0	+4	13
6	Toulouse	5	4	0	1	+7	12
7	Dijon	7	3	3	1	+5	12
8	Lyon	6	4	0	2	+5	12
9	St Etienne	6	3	3	0	+5	12
10	Marseille	6	3	3	0	+4	12
11	Caen	6	4	0	2	-3	12
12	Montpellier	6	3	2	1	+3	11
13	Angers	6	3	2	1	+3	11
14	Bordeaux	6	3	2	1	+2	11
15	Lille	7	3	0	4	-3	9
16	Bastia	6	2	2	2	+0	8
17	Lorient	7	2	1	4	-7	7
18	Metz	6	2	1	3	-9	7
19	Nantes	6	1	2	3	-4	5
20	Nancy	6	1	1	4	-5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	7	4	1	2	+8	13
2	Paris SG	6	4	0	2	+5	12
3	Nice	5	3	1	1	+3	10
4	Lyon	7	3	1	3	+0	10
5	Guingamp	7	2	2	3	+1	8
6	Bordeaux	6	2	2	2	+0	8
7	Toulouse	7	1	4	2	-1	7
8	Metz	6	2	1	3	-1	7
9	Nantes	7	2	1	4	-5	7
10	St Etienne	6	1	3	2	-1	6
11	Angers	6	2	0	4	-3	6
12	Nancy	6	1	2	3	-7	5
13	Rennes	6	1	1	4	-10	4
14	Bastia	6	1	0	5	-3	3
15	Montpellier	6	0	3	3	-10	3
16	Marseille	6	0	2	4	-5	2
17	Dijon	5	0	2	3	-6	2
18	Lille	6	0	1	5	-6	1
19	Caen	6	0	1	5	-8	1
20	Lorient	6	0	0	6	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.