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Serie A

Referee: Gianluca Rocchi

Milan

S T U S U

1–2

Full-time

Napoli

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Napoli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,8

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

4,8

Scored

1,5

3,5

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+2,2

This season — Serie A · 19/20 matches

Win Ø 59%

58%

60%

Points per game

1,9

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

53%

70%

Both score Ø 56%

47%

65%

Average goals

2,7

3,4

Scored

1,6

2,3

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

57% Possession 43%

13 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 1

4 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 16

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 5. · Napoli 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	19	15	0	4	+24	45
2	Roma	20	14	2	4	+23	44
3	Napoli	20	12	5	3	+22	41
4	Lazio	20	12	4	4	+13	40
5	Milan	19	11	4	4	+8	37
6	Inter	20	11	3	6	+10	36
7	Atalanta	20	11	2	7	+8	35
8	Fiorentina	20	9	6	5	+8	33
9	Torino	20	8	6	6	+9	30
10	Cagliari	20	8	2	10	-13	26
11	Udinese	20	7	4	9	-2	25
12	Chievo	21	7	4	10	-9	25
13	Sampdoria	20	6	6	8	-4	24
14	Genoa	20	6	5	9	-5	23
15	Bologna	19	6	5	8	-7	23
16	Sassuolo	20	6	3	11	-6	21
17	Empoli	20	4	6	10	-15	18
18	Palermo	20	2	4	14	-23	10
19	Crotone	19	2	3	14	-20	9
20	Pescara	19	1	6	12	-21	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	10	10	0	0	+21	30
2	Roma	9	9	0	0	+20	27
3	Napoli	11	8	2	1	+14	26
4	Lazio	11	8	1	2	+12	25
5	Inter	10	7	2	1	+13	23
6	Milan	10	7	2	1	+7	23
7	Cagliari	10	7	1	2	+4	22
8	Torino	10	6	3	1	+11	21
9	Fiorentina	10	5	5	0	+5	20
10	Atalanta	9	6	0	3	+4	18
11	Sampdoria	10	5	3	2	+4	18
12	Genoa	10	4	4	2	+6	16
13	Sassuolo	10	5	1	4	+1	16
14	Chievo	11	4	3	4	-4	15
15	Bologna	9	4	2	3	+2	14
16	Udinese	11	4	2	5	+0	14
17	Empoli	10	3	2	5	-9	11
18	Crotone	9	2	2	5	-5	8
19	Pescara	9	0	4	5	-11	4
20	Palermo	9	0	1	8	-14	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atalanta	11	5	2	4	+4	17
2	Roma	11	5	2	4	+3	17
3	Napoli	9	4	3	2	+8	15
4	Juventus	9	5	0	4	+3	15
5	Lazio	9	4	3	2	+1	15
6	Milan	9	4	2	3	+1	14
7	Fiorentina	10	4	1	5	+3	13
8	Inter	10	4	1	5	-3	13
9	Udinese	9	3	2	4	-2	11
10	Chievo	10	3	1	6	-5	10
11	Torino	10	2	3	5	-2	9
12	Palermo	11	2	3	6	-9	9
13	Bologna	10	2	3	5	-9	9
14	Empoli	10	1	4	5	-6	7
15	Genoa	10	2	1	7	-11	7
16	Sampdoria	10	1	3	6	-8	6
17	Sassuolo	10	1	2	7	-7	5
18	Pescara	10	1	2	7	-10	5
19	Cagliari	10	1	1	8	-17	4
20	Crotone	10	0	1	9	-15	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.