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Serie A
Referee: Fabrizio Pasqua
Milan
U U U T S
4–1
Full-time
Verona
S T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Verona
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
17%
17%
Points per game
1,2
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
17%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
1,3
2,5
Scored
0,7
0,5
Conceded
0,7
2,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-1,5
This season — Serie A · 35/35 matches
Win Ø 33%
46%
20%
Points per game
1,6
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 55%
46%
63%
Both score Ø 42%
49%
34%
Average goals
2,4
2,8
Scored
1,3
0,8
Conceded
1,1
2,0
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-1,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

61% Possession 39%
17 Shots 8
10 Shots on target 2
1 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 6
5 Corners 4
2 Offside 2
9 Free kicks against 10
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Milan 7. · Verona 19.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Juventus 35 28 4 3 +59 88
2 Napoli 35 26 6 3 +45 84
3 Lazio 35 21 7 7 +41 70
4 Roma 35 21 7 7 +31 70
5 Inter 35 18 12 5 +32 66
6 Atalanta 35 16 10 9 +19 58
7 Milan 35 16 9 10 +7 57
8 Fiorentina 35 15 9 11 +12 54
9 Sampdoria 35 16 6 13 +1 54
10 Torino 35 11 14 10 +6 47
11 Genoa 35 11 8 16 -7 41
12 Bologna 35 11 6 18 -8 39
13 Sassuolo 35 9 10 16 -31 37
14 Udinese 35 10 4 21 -13 34
15 Crotone 35 9 7 19 -24 34
16 Cagliari 35 9 6 20 -29 33
17 Spal 35 6 14 15 -23 32
18 Chievo 35 7 10 18 -26 31
19 Verona 35 7 4 24 -43 25
20 Benevento 35 5 3 27 -49 18

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Milan Verona
1–0 H. Çalhanoğlu
Suso
10′
2–0 P. Cutrone
G. Bonaventura
32′
Half-time 3–0
3–0 I. Abate
Suso
49′
53′
🔁 F. Zuculini
↦ S. Calvano
57′
🔁 Lee Seung-Woo
↦ B. Petković
F. Borini 🔁
↦ Suso
58′
M. Musacchio 🔁
↦ A. Romagnoli
62′
Fabio Borini 🟨
69′
N. Kalinić 🔁
↦ P. Cutrone
71′
76′
🔁 R. Aarons
↦ M. Fares
85′
Lee Seung-Woo 3–1
4–1 F. Borini
G. Bonaventura
89′
Full-time 4–1

Line-ups

Milan

4-3-3
99 G. Donnarumma G
19 L. Bonucci D
20 I. Abate D
68 R. Rodríguez D
13 A. Romagnoli D
5 G. Bonaventura M
10 H. Çalhanoğlu F
79 F. Kessié M
73 M. Locatelli M
8 Suso F
63 P. Cutrone F
Bench (12)
11 F. Borini
22 M. Musacchio
7 N. Kalinić
2 D. Calabria
4 J. Mauri
9 André Silva
15 G. Gómez
17 C. Zapata
18 R. Montolivo
30 M. Storari
31 L. Antonelli
90 A. Donnarumma

Coach: G. Gattuso

Verona

4-3-3
17 M. Silvestri G
75 T. Heurtaux D
12 A. Caracciolo D
93 M. Fares D
2 Rômulo M
23 S. Calvano M
37 E. Bearzotti F
72 A. Danzi M
10 A. Cerci F
30 Ryder Matos F
70 B. Petković F
Bench (11)
14 F. Zuculini
21 Lee Seung-Woo
16 R. Aarons
1 Nicolas
7 D. Verde
8 M. Fossati
25 D. Boldor
28 A. Ferrari
40 F. Coppola
69 S. Souprayen
97 G. Felicioli

Coach: F. Pecchia

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Fabrizio Pasqua · 39 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.