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Serie A

Referee: Daniele Doveri

Napoli

S U S S U

2–1

Full-time

Milan

T U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

0,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,0

This season — Serie A · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

75%

50%

Both score Ø 46%

50%

42%

Average goals

3,3

2,8

Scored

2,7

1,5

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

45% Possession 55%

16 Shots 13

10 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 8

3 Corners 1

4 Offside 2

17 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Napoli 1. · Milan 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	12	10	2	0	+24	32
2	Juventus	12	10	1	1	+24	31
3	Roma	12	10	0	2	+15	30
4	Inter	12	9	3	0	+14	30
5	Lazio	12	9	1	2	+18	28
6	Sampdoria	11	7	2	2	+11	23
7	Milan	12	6	1	5	+2	19
8	Torino	12	4	5	3	-2	17
9	Fiorentina	12	5	1	6	+4	16
10	Atalanta	12	4	4	4	+3	16
11	Chievo	12	4	4	4	-5	16
12	Bologna	12	4	2	6	-4	14
13	Udinese	11	4	0	7	-4	12
14	Cagliari	12	4	0	8	-10	12
15	Crotone	12	3	3	6	-12	12
16	Spal	12	2	3	7	-10	9
17	Sassuolo	12	2	2	8	-15	8
18	Genoa	12	1	3	8	-9	6
19	Verona	12	1	3	8	-18	6
20	Benevento	12	0	0	12	-26	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	7	6	0	1	+14	18
2	Inter	6	5	1	0	+8	16
3	Sampdoria	5	5	0	0	+13	15
4	Roma	7	5	0	2	+5	15
5	Atalanta	7	4	2	1	+8	14
6	Napoli	5	4	1	0	+13	13
7	Lazio	5	3	1	1	+8	10
8	Fiorentina	6	3	1	2	+2	10
9	Milan	6	3	1	2	+0	10
10	Udinese	6	3	0	3	+0	9
11	Cagliari	6	3	0	3	-1	9
12	Torino	5	2	2	1	+3	8
13	Chievo	6	2	2	2	-2	8
14	Crotone	6	2	2	2	-2	8
15	Spal	6	2	1	3	-2	7
16	Bologna	6	1	2	3	-4	5
17	Verona	6	1	1	4	-10	4
18	Sassuolo	6	0	2	4	-6	2
19	Genoa	6	0	1	5	-7	1
20	Benevento	6	0	0	6	-14	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	7	6	1	0	+11	19
2	Lazio	7	6	0	1	+10	18
3	Roma	5	5	0	0	+10	15
4	Inter	6	4	2	0	+6	14
5	Juventus	5	4	1	0	+10	13
6	Milan	6	3	0	3	+2	9
7	Bologna	6	3	0	3	+0	9
8	Torino	7	2	3	2	-5	9
9	Sampdoria	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	Chievo	6	2	2	2	-3	8
11	Fiorentina	6	2	0	4	+2	6
12	Sassuolo	6	2	0	4	-9	6
13	Genoa	6	1	2	3	-2	5
14	Crotone	6	1	1	4	-10	4
15	Udinese	5	1	0	4	-4	3
16	Cagliari	6	1	0	5	-9	3
17	Atalanta	5	0	2	3	-5	2
18	Verona	6	0	2	4	-8	2
19	Spal	6	0	2	4	-8	2
20	Benevento	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.