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La Liga
Referee: Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez
Real Madrid
S S S S S
1–2
Full-time
Girona
U T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Girona
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
83%
0%
Points per game
2,5
0,3
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,3
3,0
Scored
2,3
0,8
Conceded
1,0
2,2
Goal diff per game
+1,3
-1,3
This season — La Liga · 23/23 matches
Win Ø 42%
61%
22%
Points per game
2,0
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 46%
52%
39%
Both score Ø 48%
43%
52%
Average goals
2,9
2,4
Scored
1,7
1,0
Conceded
1,2
1,4
Goal diff per game
+0,6
-0,4
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

57% Possession 43%
19 Shots 14
7 Shots on target 6
5 Blocked shots 1
4 Goalkeeper saves 6
7 Corners 0
5 Offside 3
13 Free kicks against 18
3 Yellow cards 2
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Real Madrid 3. · Girona 17.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Barcelona 24 16 6 2 +38 54
2 Ath Madrid 24 13 8 3 +17 47
3 Real Madrid 23 14 3 6 +13 45
4 Sevilla 23 10 7 6 +13 37
5 Getafe 24 9 9 6 +9 36
6 Alaves 23 10 5 8 -3 35
7 Sociedad 24 9 7 8 +5 34
8 Betis 23 9 5 9 -3 32
9 Valencia 23 6 13 4 +4 31
10 Eibar 24 7 10 7 -1 31
11 Levante 24 8 6 10 -7 30
12 Leganes 24 7 8 9 -5 29
13 Espanol 23 8 4 11 -10 28
14 Ath Bilbao 23 5 12 6 -5 27
15 Valladolid 24 6 8 10 -10 26
16 Celta 24 6 6 12 -7 24
17 Girona 23 5 9 9 -10 24
18 Vallecano 24 6 5 13 -14 23
19 Villarreal 23 3 11 9 -8 20
20 Huesca 23 4 6 13 -16 18

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Real Madrid Girona
1–0 Casemiro
T. Kroos
25′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 A. Lozano
↦ Pedro Porro
46′
🔁 Aleix García
↦ Pere Pons
48′
🟨 Anthony Lozano
Vinícius Júnior 🔁
↦ Lucas Vázquez
58′
Sergio Ramos 🟨
64′
65′
C. Stuani 1–1
G. Bale 🔁
↦ Marco Asensio
66′
M. Díaz 🔁
↦ Dani Ceballos
74′
75′
Portu 1–2
84′
🔁 Valery
↦ Portu
86′
🟨 Pedro Alcala
Casemiro 🟨
88′
Sergio Ramos 🟨
90′
Sergio Ramos 🟥
90′
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Real Madrid

4-3-3
25 T. Courtois G
4 Sergio Ramos D
12 Marcelo D
5 R. Varane D
19 Álvaro Odriozola D
8 T. Kroos M
14 Casemiro M
17 Lucas Vázquez M
20 Marco Asensio M
24 Dani Ceballos M
9 K. Benzema F
Bench (7)
28 Vinícius Júnior
11 G. Bale
7 M. Díaz
15 F. Valverde
1 K. Navas
2 Daniel Carvajal
6 Nacho

Coach: S. Solari

Girona

4-1-4-1
13 Y. Bounou G
4 Ramalho D
5 Alcalá D
15 Juanpe D
14 Raúl García D
9 Portu F
6 Álex Granell M
8 Pere Pons M
12 Douglas Luiz M
24 Pedro Porro M
7 C. Stuani F
Bench (7)
19 A. Lozano
23 Aleix García
34 Valery
1 Iraizoz
17 P. Roberts
21 Planas
35 Paik Seung-Ho

Coach: Eusebio Sacristán

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez · 51 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
27,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,29 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.