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Primeira Liga

Referee: Helder Malheiro

Nacional

T U T S T

3–2

Full-time

Tondela

T U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

3,7

2,7

Scored

0,8

Conceded

2,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

-2,0

-1,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 26%

26%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

57%

52%

Both score Ø 48%

39%

57%

Average goals

3,1

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,1

Conceded

2,0

1,6

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

58% Possession 42%

19 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 7

3 Offside 4

11 Free kicks against 22

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 16. · Tondela 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	23	18	3	2	+35	57
2	Benfica	23	18	2	3	+44	56
3	Sp Braga	23	15	4	4	+17	49
4	Sp Lisbon	23	14	4	5	+19	46
5	Moreirense	23	13	2	8	+2	41
6	Guimaraes	23	10	6	7	+6	36
7	Belenenses	23	8	9	6	+2	33
8	Santa Clara	23	9	3	11	+0	30
9	Rio Ave	23	7	7	9	-2	28
10	Portimonense	23	8	4	11	-7	28
11	Boavista	24	7	5	12	-11	26
12	Aves	24	7	4	13	-12	25
13	Maritimo	23	7	3	13	-12	24
14	Vitoria Setubal	23	5	8	10	-6	23
15	Tondela	23	6	5	12	-10	23
16	Nacional	23	6	5	12	-23	23
17	Chaves	23	5	4	14	-18	19
18	Feirense	23	2	8	13	-24	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	12	10	1	1	+17	31
2	Sp Braga	12	10	1	1	+15	31
3	Porto	11	10	0	1	+22	30
4	Benfica	11	9	1	1	+30	28
5	Moreirense	11	7	2	2	+6	23
6	Guimaraes	11	6	3	2	+6	21
7	Portimonense	12	5	4	3	+4	19
8	Boavista	12	6	1	5	+1	19
9	Rio Ave	12	4	5	3	+1	17
10	Belenenses	11	4	3	4	+1	15
11	Aves	13	4	3	6	-2	15
12	Tondela	12	4	2	6	-5	14
13	Nacional	12	4	2	6	-5	14
14	Vitoria Setubal	11	3	4	4	+0	13
15	Santa Clara	12	4	1	7	-3	13
16	Chaves	11	3	3	5	-3	12
17	Maritimo	11	3	2	6	-6	11
18	Feirense	11	1	5	5	-6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	12	9	1	2	+14	28
2	Porto	12	8	3	1	+13	27
3	Sp Braga	11	5	3	3	+2	18
4	Belenenses	12	4	6	2	+1	18
5	Moreirense	12	6	0	6	-4	18
6	Santa Clara	11	5	2	4	+3	17
7	Sp Lisbon	11	4	3	4	+2	15
8	Guimaraes	12	4	3	5	+0	15
9	Maritimo	12	4	1	7	-6	13
10	Rio Ave	11	3	2	6	-3	11
11	Vitoria Setubal	12	2	4	6	-6	10
12	Aves	11	3	1	7	-10	10
13	Tondela	11	2	3	6	-5	9
14	Portimonense	11	3	0	8	-11	9
15	Nacional	11	2	3	6	-18	9
16	Boavista	12	1	4	7	-12	7
17	Chaves	12	2	1	9	-15	7
18	Feirense	12	1	3	8	-18	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.