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Serie A

Referee: Paolo Valeri

Milan

U U S S S

1–0

Full-time

Sassuolo

S U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Sassuolo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,2

Scored

2,0

0,8

Conceded

0,3

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,5

This season — Serie A · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 38%

48%

28%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

48%

52%

Both score Ø 56%

56%

Average goals

2,4

3,0

Scored

1,5

1,4

Conceded

0,9

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

45% Possession 55%

11 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 6

1 Offside 3

20 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Milan 4. · Sassuolo 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	25	22	3	0	+38	69
2	Napoli	25	17	5	3	+28	56
3	Inter	26	14	5	7	+16	47
4	Milan	25	12	9	4	+16	45
5	Roma	25	12	8	5	+16	44
6	Atalanta	25	11	5	9	+15	38
7	Torino	25	9	11	5	+8	38
8	Lazio	24	11	5	8	+6	38
9	Fiorentina	25	8	12	5	+11	36
10	Sampdoria	25	10	6	9	+9	36
11	Sassuolo	25	7	10	8	-5	31
12	Parma	26	8	6	12	-12	30
13	Genoa	25	7	8	10	-9	29
14	Cagliari	26	6	9	11	-14	27
15	Spal	25	5	8	12	-15	23
16	Udinese	24	5	7	12	-12	22
17	Empoli	26	5	7	14	-18	22
18	Bologna	25	3	9	13	-19	18
19	Frosinone	25	3	7	15	-30	16
20	Chievo	25	1	10	14	-29	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	13	11	2	0	+20	35
2	Napoli	13	10	3	0	+21	33
3	Milan	13	8	3	2	+10	27
4	Inter	12	8	2	2	+13	26
5	Roma	12	7	4	1	+12	25
6	Sampdoria	12	7	2	3	+11	23
7	Torino	12	7	1	4	+5	22
8	Lazio	12	6	3	3	+6	21
9	Cagliari	13	5	6	2	+4	21
10	Fiorentina	12	5	5	2	+9	20
11	Genoa	13	5	5	3	+2	20
12	Atalanta	12	5	3	4	+7	18
13	Empoli	14	5	3	6	-1	18
14	Sassuolo	13	4	6	3	-2	18
15	Udinese	13	4	3	6	-5	15
16	Parma	13	3	4	6	-7	13
17	Spal	12	2	6	4	-6	12
18	Bologna	12	2	4	6	-9	10
19	Chievo	13	1	5	7	-13	8
20	Frosinone	12	0	5	7	-17	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	12	11	1	0	+18	34
2	Napoli	12	7	2	3	+7	23
3	Inter	14	6	3	5	+3	21
4	Atalanta	13	6	2	5	+8	20
5	Roma	13	5	4	4	+4	19
6	Milan	12	4	6	2	+6	18
7	Lazio	12	5	2	5	+0	17
8	Parma	13	5	2	6	-5	17
9	Torino	13	2	10	1	+3	16
10	Fiorentina	13	3	7	3	+2	16
11	Sampdoria	13	3	4	6	-2	13
12	Sassuolo	12	3	4	5	-3	13
13	Spal	13	3	2	8	-9	11
14	Frosinone	13	3	2	8	-13	11
15	Genoa	12	2	3	7	-11	9
16	Bologna	13	1	5	7	-10	8
17	Udinese	11	1	4	6	-7	7
18	Cagliari	13	1	3	9	-18	6
19	Chievo	12	0	5	7	-16	5
20	Empoli	12	0	4	8	-17	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.