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La Liga

Referee: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez

Real Madrid

S U S U S

0–3

Full-time

Barcelona

S U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Barcelona

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

2,0

2,3

Conceded

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+1,7

This season — La Liga · 15/16 matches

Win Ø 71%

60%

81%

Points per game

2,1

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

67%

56%

Both score Ø 43%

47%

38%

Average goals

2,7

3,1

Scored

2,0

2,6

Conceded

0,7

0,4

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+2,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

44% Possession 56%

14 Shots 18

5 Shots on target 11

3 Blocked shots 4

8 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 7

5 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 4. · Barcelona 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	16	13	3	0	+35	42
2	Ath Madrid	17	10	6	1	+17	36
3	Valencia	16	10	4	2	+20	34
4	Real Madrid	15	9	4	2	+19	31
5	Sevilla	17	9	2	6	-2	29
6	Villarreal	16	7	3	6	+3	24
7	Eibar	17	7	3	7	-7	24
8	Getafe	17	6	5	6	+6	23
9	Sociedad	17	6	5	6	+2	23
10	Girona	17	6	5	6	-5	23
11	Ath Bilbao	17	5	6	6	-1	21
12	Leganes	16	6	3	7	-2	21
13	Betis	17	6	3	8	-6	21
14	Espanol	17	5	5	7	-7	20
15	Celta	16	5	3	8	+3	18
16	Levante	17	3	9	5	-7	18
17	Alaves	17	5	0	12	-12	15
18	La Coruna	16	4	3	9	-13	15
19	Malaga	17	3	2	12	-18	11
20	Las Palmas	17	3	2	12	-25	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	8	7	1	0	+22	22
2	Valencia	8	6	2	0	+15	20
3	Sevilla	8	6	2	0	+10	20
4	Real Madrid	8	5	2	1	+13	17
5	Eibar	9	5	2	2	+7	17
6	Getafe	9	5	1	3	+8	16
7	Espanol	9	5	1	3	+3	16
8	Ath Madrid	7	4	3	0	+5	15
9	Betis	9	4	2	3	+2	14
10	Villarreal	7	4	1	2	+8	13
11	Sociedad	9	3	3	3	+2	12
12	Celta	8	3	2	3	+1	11
13	Leganes	7	3	2	2	+0	11
14	Girona	9	3	2	4	-3	11
15	Ath Bilbao	8	2	4	2	+0	10
16	La Coruna	8	3	1	4	-4	10
17	Levante	10	2	4	4	-5	10
18	Alaves	9	3	0	6	-6	9
19	Malaga	8	2	2	4	-5	8
20	Las Palmas	8	2	1	5	-11	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	10	6	3	1	+12	21
2	Barcelona	8	6	2	0	+13	20
3	Real Madrid	7	4	2	1	+6	14
4	Valencia	8	4	2	2	+5	14
5	Girona	8	3	3	2	-2	12
6	Sociedad	8	3	2	3	+0	11
7	Ath Bilbao	9	3	2	4	-1	11
8	Villarreal	9	3	2	4	-5	11
9	Leganes	9	3	1	5	-2	10
10	Sevilla	9	3	0	6	-12	9
11	Levante	7	1	5	1	-2	8
12	Celta	8	2	1	5	+2	7
13	Getafe	8	1	4	3	-2	7
14	Betis	8	2	1	5	-8	7
15	Eibar	8	2	1	5	-14	7
16	Alaves	8	2	0	6	-6	6
17	La Coruna	8	1	2	5	-9	5
18	Espanol	8	0	4	4	-10	4
19	Las Palmas	9	1	1	7	-14	4
20	Malaga	9	1	0	8	-13	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.