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Premier League

Referee: Stuart Attwell

Man United

U S S U S

3–2

Full-time

Southampton

U U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,0

This season — Premier League · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 39%

57%

21%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

75%

57%

Both score Ø 66%

71%

61%

Average goals

3,3

2,7

Scored

2,0

1,1

Conceded

1,3

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

64% Possession 36%

16 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 7

2 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 5. · Southampton 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	28	21	6	1	+49	69
2	Man City	28	22	2	4	+55	68
3	Tottenham	29	20	1	8	+26	61
4	Arsenal	29	17	6	6	+22	57
5	Man United	28	16	7	5	+19	55
6	Chelsea	27	16	5	6	+18	53
7	Wolves	28	11	7	10	+0	40
8	Watford	28	11	7	10	-1	40
9	Everton	28	10	6	12	+0	36
10	West Ham	28	10	6	12	-6	36
11	Leicester	28	10	5	13	-5	35
12	Bournemouth	28	10	4	14	-14	34
13	Newcastle	28	8	7	13	-8	31
14	Crystal Palace	28	8	6	14	-6	30
15	Burnley	28	8	6	14	-19	30
16	Brighton	27	7	6	14	-12	27
17	Southampton	28	6	9	13	-16	27
18	Cardiff	28	7	4	17	-30	25
19	Fulham	28	4	5	19	-37	17
20	Huddersfield	28	3	5	20	-35	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	15	14	0	1	+39	42
2	Liverpool	14	12	2	0	+33	38
3	Arsenal	15	12	2	1	+23	38
4	Chelsea	14	9	4	1	+19	31
5	Tottenham	14	9	1	4	+12	28
6	Man United	13	7	5	1	+9	26
7	Bournemouth	14	7	4	3	+8	25
8	West Ham	14	6	3	5	+1	21
9	Wolves	14	6	3	5	+1	21
10	Everton	14	6	3	5	+0	21
11	Watford	13	6	2	5	-1	20
12	Brighton	13	5	4	4	+1	19
13	Newcastle	15	6	1	8	-2	19
14	Leicester	14	5	2	7	-2	17
15	Burnley	13	5	2	6	-6	17
16	Cardiff	15	5	2	8	-15	17
17	Southampton	14	3	6	5	-4	15
18	Fulham	13	4	3	6	-9	15
19	Crystal Palace	14	3	4	7	-5	13
20	Huddersfield	15	2	2	11	-15	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	15	11	0	4	+14	33
2	Liverpool	14	9	4	1	+16	31
3	Man United	15	9	2	4	+10	29
4	Man City	13	8	2	3	+16	26
5	Chelsea	13	7	1	5	-1	22
6	Watford	15	5	5	5	+0	20
7	Arsenal	14	5	4	5	-1	19
8	Wolves	14	5	4	5	-1	19
9	Leicester	14	5	3	6	-3	18
10	Crystal Palace	14	5	2	7	-1	17
11	Everton	14	4	3	7	+0	15
12	West Ham	14	4	3	7	-7	15
13	Burnley	15	3	4	8	-13	13
14	Newcastle	13	2	6	5	-6	12
15	Southampton	14	3	3	8	-12	12
16	Bournemouth	14	3	0	11	-22	9
17	Brighton	14	2	2	10	-13	8
18	Cardiff	13	2	2	9	-15	8
19	Huddersfield	13	1	3	9	-20	6
20	Fulham	15	0	2	13	-28	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.