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Championship

Referee: Roger East

Stoke

T T U U U

2–0

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

T S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,5

2,3

Scored

0,3

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,3

This season — Championship · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 31%

26%

35%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

38%

41%

Both score Ø 47%

47%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,4

Conceded

1,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

49% Possession 51%

8 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 18. · Nott'm Forest 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	34	19	9	6	+24	66
2	Sheffield United	34	19	7	8	+25	64
3	Leeds	33	18	7	8	+16	61
4	Middlesbrough	33	15	12	6	+14	57
5	West Brom	33	16	8	9	+18	56
6	Bristol City	33	15	8	10	+8	53
7	Derby	31	14	9	8	+10	51
8	Birmingham	34	12	14	8	+10	50
9	Nott'm Forest	34	12	14	8	+9	50
10	Preston	34	12	11	11	+5	47
11	Hull	34	13	8	13	+0	47
12	Sheffield Weds	34	12	11	11	-7	47
13	Aston Villa	32	10	14	8	+6	44
14	Swansea	33	12	8	13	+1	44
15	Blackburn	34	11	11	12	-7	44
16	Brentford	33	11	10	12	+9	43
17	QPR	34	12	6	16	-10	42
18	Stoke	34	9	14	11	-7	41
19	Wigan	33	9	8	16	-14	35
20	Millwall	34	8	10	16	-13	34
21	Reading	34	6	12	16	-15	30
22	Rotherham	34	5	15	14	-20	30
23	Bolton	34	6	8	20	-31	26
24	Ipswich	34	3	12	19	-31	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	17	11	3	3	+18	36
2	Leeds	17	11	3	3	+15	36
3	Norwich	17	11	2	4	+10	35
4	Brentford	17	10	3	4	+18	33
5	Nott'm Forest	17	9	4	4	+8	31
6	Derby	15	8	5	2	+9	29
7	Wigan	17	8	5	4	+3	29
8	Hull	17	8	4	5	+11	28
9	Sheffield Weds	17	7	7	3	+3	28
10	Middlesbrough	16	7	6	3	+7	27
11	Blackburn	17	7	6	4	+6	27
12	West Brom	16	7	5	4	+13	26
13	Preston	17	6	8	3	+9	26
14	Birmingham	17	6	8	3	+9	26
15	Aston Villa	16	6	8	2	+7	26
16	Bristol City	17	7	5	5	+4	26
17	QPR	17	8	2	7	+2	26
18	Swansea	16	7	4	5	+4	25
19	Stoke	17	7	4	6	+0	25
20	Millwall	17	6	6	5	+0	24
21	Rotherham	17	5	8	4	-3	23
22	Reading	17	5	4	8	-2	19
23	Ipswich	17	2	9	6	-6	15
24	Bolton	17	3	4	10	-15	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	17	8	7	2	+14	31
2	Middlesbrough	17	8	6	3	+7	30
3	West Brom	17	9	3	5	+5	30
4	Sheffield United	17	8	4	5	+7	28
5	Bristol City	16	8	3	5	+4	27
6	Leeds	16	7	4	5	+1	25
7	Birmingham	17	6	6	5	+1	24
8	Derby	16	6	4	6	+1	22
9	Preston	17	6	3	8	-4	21
10	Nott'm Forest	17	3	10	4	+1	19
11	Swansea	17	5	4	8	-3	19
12	Sheffield Weds	17	5	4	8	-10	19
13	Hull	17	5	4	8	-11	19
14	Aston Villa	16	4	6	6	-1	18
15	Blackburn	17	4	5	8	-13	17
16	Stoke	17	2	10	5	-7	16
17	QPR	17	4	4	9	-12	16
18	Bolton	17	3	4	10	-16	13
19	Reading	17	1	8	8	-13	11
20	Brentford	16	1	7	8	-9	10
21	Millwall	17	2	4	11	-13	10
22	Rotherham	17	0	7	10	-17	7
23	Wigan	16	1	3	12	-17	6
24	Ipswich	17	1	3	13	-25	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.