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Bundesliga

Referee: Guido Winkmann

Leverkusen

S S S S T

2–0

Full-time

Freiburg

T U U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen Freiburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,5

4,3

Scored

2,5

2,2

Conceded

1,0

2,2

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,0

This season — Bundesliga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 37%

48%

26%

Points per game

1,6

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

65%

52%

Both score Ø 63%

61%

65%

Average goals

3,3

3,1

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

73% Possession 27%

18 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 2

2 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 7

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leverkusen 7. · Freiburg 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	24	16	6	2	+31	54
2	Bayern Munich	23	16	3	4	+25	51
3	M'gladbach	23	13	4	6	+17	43
4	RB Leipzig	23	12	6	5	+22	42
5	Wolfsburg	23	11	5	7	+8	38
6	Ein Frankfurt	23	10	7	6	+16	37
7	Leverkusen	23	11	3	9	+6	36
8	Hoffenheim	23	8	10	5	+12	34
9	Werder Bremen	23	8	8	7	+4	32
10	Hertha	23	8	8	7	+2	32
11	Mainz	23	8	6	9	-10	30
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	23	8	4	11	-15	28
13	Freiburg	23	6	9	8	-4	27
14	Schalke 04	23	6	5	12	-10	23
15	Augsburg	24	5	6	13	-12	21
16	Stuttgart	23	4	4	15	-32	16
17	Hannover	23	3	5	15	-30	14
18	Nurnberg	23	2	7	14	-30	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	12	10	2	0	+23	32
2	M'gladbach	11	9	0	2	+16	27
3	RB Leipzig	12	7	4	1	+17	25
4	Bayern Munich	11	7	3	1	+11	24
5	Leverkusen	11	6	1	4	+2	19
6	Mainz	12	5	4	3	+1	19
7	Ein Frankfurt	11	5	3	3	+10	18
8	Fortuna Dusseldorf	12	6	0	6	-1	18
9	Hoffenheim	12	4	5	3	+6	17
10	Freiburg	12	4	5	3	+4	17
11	Werder Bremen	12	4	5	3	+3	17
12	Hertha	11	4	5	2	+2	17
13	Wolfsburg	11	4	3	4	-1	15
14	Augsburg	12	3	4	5	+1	13
15	Schalke 04	11	4	1	6	-3	13
16	Nurnberg	12	2	5	5	-4	11
17	Stuttgart	11	3	2	6	-12	11
18	Hannover	12	3	1	8	-12	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	9	0	3	+14	27
2	Wolfsburg	12	7	2	3	+9	23
3	Dortmund	12	6	4	2	+8	22
4	Ein Frankfurt	12	5	4	3	+6	19
5	Hoffenheim	11	4	5	2	+6	17
6	RB Leipzig	11	5	2	4	+5	17
7	Leverkusen	12	5	2	5	+4	17
8	M'gladbach	12	4	4	4	+1	16
9	Werder Bremen	11	4	3	4	+1	15
10	Hertha	12	4	3	5	+0	15
11	Mainz	11	3	2	6	-11	11
12	Schalke 04	12	2	4	6	-7	10
13	Freiburg	11	2	4	5	-8	10
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	11	2	4	5	-14	10
15	Augsburg	12	2	2	8	-13	8
16	Stuttgart	12	1	2	9	-20	5
17	Hannover	11	0	4	7	-18	4
18	Nurnberg	11	0	2	9	-26	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.