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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Hernandez

Real Madrid

S S S U S

2–3

Full-time

Barcelona

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Barcelona

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,7

4,0

Scored

2,5

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+1,0

This season — La Liga · 31/32 matches

Win Ø 72%

74%

69%

Points per game

2,4

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 77%

81%

72%

Both score Ø 67%

74%

59%

Average goals

3,7

3,8

Scored

2,6

2,8

Conceded

1,1

0,9

Goal diff per game

+1,6

+1,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

42% Possession 58%

22 Shots 16

14 Shots on target 9

0 Blocked shots 1

6 Goalkeeper saves 12

7 Corners 4

6 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 1. · Barcelona 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	31	23	6	2	+49	75
2	Barcelona	32	22	6	4	+61	72
3	Ath Madrid	33	20	8	5	+36	68
4	Sevilla	33	19	8	6	+19	65
5	Villarreal	33	16	9	8	+21	57
6	Sociedad	33	17	4	12	+4	55
7	Ath Bilbao	32	16	5	11	+8	53
8	Eibar	32	14	8	10	+8	50
9	Espanol	33	13	10	10	+1	49
10	Celta	32	13	5	14	-4	44
11	Alaves	33	11	11	11	-8	44
12	Valencia	33	11	7	15	-9	40
13	Las Palmas	33	10	9	14	-6	39
14	Betis	33	10	7	16	-15	37
15	Malaga	33	9	9	15	-11	36
16	La Coruna	33	7	10	16	-16	31
17	Leganes	33	6	9	18	-24	27
18	Sp Gijon	33	5	8	20	-30	23
19	Granada	33	4	8	21	-43	20
20	Osasuna	33	3	9	21	-41	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	16	12	4	0	+25	40
2	Barcelona	16	12	3	1	+36	39
3	Ath Bilbao	17	12	3	2	+17	39
4	Sevilla	16	12	3	1	+17	39
5	Ath Madrid	16	12	2	2	+24	38
6	Las Palmas	17	9	6	2	+16	33
7	Villarreal	17	10	3	4	+15	33
8	Sociedad	17	9	4	4	+5	31
9	Eibar	16	9	3	4	+8	30
10	Espanol	17	8	5	4	+8	29
11	Celta	16	9	1	6	+4	28
12	Malaga	16	8	2	6	+4	26
13	Valencia	16	7	4	5	+0	25
14	Betis	17	6	6	5	+1	24
15	La Coruna	16	6	5	5	+6	23
16	Alaves	16	5	7	4	-5	22
17	Granada	16	4	4	8	-8	16
18	Leganes	16	3	5	8	-8	14
19	Sp Gijon	16	4	2	10	-13	14
20	Osasuna	17	1	6	10	-17	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	15	11	2	2	+24	35
2	Barcelona	16	10	3	3	+25	33
3	Ath Madrid	17	8	6	3	+12	30
4	Sevilla	17	7	5	5	+2	26
5	Villarreal	16	6	6	4	+6	24
6	Sociedad	16	8	0	8	-1	24
7	Alaves	17	6	4	7	-3	22
8	Eibar	16	5	5	6	+0	20
9	Espanol	16	5	5	6	-7	20
10	Celta	16	4	4	8	-8	16
11	Valencia	17	4	3	10	-9	15
12	Ath Bilbao	15	4	2	9	-9	14
13	Betis	16	4	1	11	-16	13
14	Leganes	17	3	4	10	-16	13
15	Malaga	17	1	7	9	-15	10
16	Sp Gijon	17	1	6	10	-17	9
17	Osasuna	16	2	3	11	-24	9
18	La Coruna	17	1	5	11	-22	8
19	Las Palmas	16	1	3	12	-22	6
20	Granada	17	0	4	13	-35	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.