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La Liga

Referee: Juan Martinez Munuera

Real Madrid

S S S U S

1–1

Full-time

Ath Bilbao

S T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

4,0

2,8

Scored

2,8

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,2

This season — La Liga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 46%

63%

28%

Points per game

2,1

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

75%

31%

Both score Ø 53%

59%

47%

Average goals

3,6

2,3

Scored

2,5

1,1

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,4

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

65% Possession 35%

29 Shots 6

10 Shots on target 2

8 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 9

16 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 19

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 3. · Ath Bilbao 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	33	25	8	0	+64	83
2	Ath Madrid	32	21	8	3	+39	71
3	Real Madrid	32	20	7	5	+44	67
4	Valencia	33	20	5	8	+26	65
5	Betis	32	16	4	12	+0	52
6	Villarreal	33	15	6	12	+5	51
7	Sevilla	33	14	6	13	-11	48
8	Getafe	33	12	9	12	+7	45
9	Celta	33	12	8	13	+6	44
10	Girona	32	12	8	12	-5	44
11	Eibar	33	12	7	14	-9	43
12	Sociedad	32	11	7	14	+5	40
13	Ath Bilbao	32	9	12	11	-3	39
14	Leganes	33	11	6	16	-13	39
15	Alaves	32	12	2	18	-16	38
16	Espanol	33	8	12	13	-14	36
17	Levante	32	6	13	13	-20	31
18	La Coruna	33	6	9	18	-33	27
19	Las Palmas	32	5	6	21	-42	21
20	Malaga	32	4	5	23	-30	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	16	14	2	0	+37	44
2	Ath Madrid	16	12	4	0	+24	40
3	Valencia	17	12	2	3	+19	38
4	Real Madrid	16	10	3	3	+27	33
5	Getafe	17	9	3	5	+14	30
6	Villarreal	16	9	2	5	+9	29
7	Sevilla	16	8	5	3	+6	29
8	Girona	16	8	3	5	+10	27
9	Celta	16	7	6	3	+9	27
10	Betis	16	8	3	5	+2	27
11	Leganes	16	8	3	5	+2	27
12	Espanol	17	7	5	5	+1	26
13	Eibar	17	7	4	6	+7	25
14	Alaves	16	8	1	7	-2	25
15	Sociedad	16	7	3	6	+12	24
16	Ath Bilbao	16	5	8	3	+4	23
17	Levante	16	4	6	6	-6	18
18	La Coruna	17	4	6	7	-7	18
19	Las Palmas	16	4	2	10	-17	14
20	Malaga	16	3	3	10	-11	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	11	6	0	+27	39
2	Real Madrid	16	10	4	2	+17	34
3	Ath Madrid	16	9	4	3	+15	31
4	Valencia	16	8	3	5	+7	27
5	Betis	16	8	1	7	-2	25
6	Villarreal	17	6	4	7	-4	22
7	Sevilla	17	6	1	10	-17	19
8	Eibar	16	5	3	8	-16	18
9	Celta	17	5	2	10	-3	17
10	Girona	16	4	5	7	-15	17
11	Sociedad	16	4	4	8	-7	16
12	Ath Bilbao	16	4	4	8	-7	16
13	Getafe	16	3	6	7	-7	15
14	Alaves	16	4	1	11	-14	13
15	Levante	16	2	7	7	-14	13
16	Leganes	17	3	3	11	-15	12
17	Espanol	16	1	7	8	-15	10
18	La Coruna	16	2	3	11	-26	9
19	Las Palmas	16	1	4	11	-25	7
20	Malaga	16	1	2	13	-19	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.