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La Liga
Referee: Alejandro Hernandez
Barcelona
S S S S U
1–2
Full-time
Real Madrid
T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
83%
67%
Points per game
2,7
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
100%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
4,3
3,7
Scored
3,5
2,8
Conceded
0,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
+2,7
+2,0
This season — La Liga · 30/30 matches
Win Ø 74%
80%
67%
Points per game
2,5
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
80%
70%
Both score Ø 57%
57%
57%
Average goals
3,7
3,8
Scored
2,9
2,9
Conceded
0,8
0,9
Goal diff per game
+2,1
+2,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

68% Possession 32%
14 Shots 15
3 Shots on target 6
4 Blocked shots 4
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
4 Corners 3
3 Offside 3
0 Free kicks against 0
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Barcelona 1. · Real Madrid 3.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Barcelona 30 24 4 2 +62 76
2 Ath Madrid 31 22 4 5 +36 70
3 Real Madrid 30 20 6 4 +59 66
4 Villarreal 30 15 9 6 +12 54
5 Sevilla 30 13 9 8 +8 48
6 Celta 30 14 6 10 -8 48
7 Ath Bilbao 30 14 5 11 +9 47
8 Malaga 30 10 9 11 +1 39
9 Eibar 30 10 8 12 +0 38
10 La Coruna 30 7 15 8 -4 36
11 Las Palmas 31 10 6 15 -9 36
12 Sociedad 30 9 8 13 -4 35
13 Espanol 30 10 5 15 -25 35
14 Valencia 31 8 10 13 -4 34
15 Betis 31 8 10 13 -17 34
16 Vallecano 31 7 10 14 -20 31
17 Granada 30 7 7 16 -24 28
18 Getafe 31 7 7 17 -26 28
19 Sp Gijon 30 7 6 17 -20 27
20 Levante 30 6 6 18 -26 24

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Barcelona Real Madrid
10′
🟨 Sergio Ramos
18′
🟨 Daniel Carvajal
Luis Suárez 🟨
27′
Javier Mascherano 🟨
29′
Half-time 1–0
1–0 Piqué
I. Rakitić
56′
Ivan Rakitić 🟨
59′
62′
K. Benzema 1–1
A. Turan 🔁
↦ I. Rakitić
74′
78′
🔁 Jesé
↦ K. Benzema
80′
🟨 Cristiano Ronaldo
83′
🟨 Sergio Ramos
83′
🟥 Sergio Ramos
85′
Cristiano Ronaldo 1–2
G. Bale
91′
🔁 Lucas Vázquez
↦ G. Bale
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Barcelona

13 C. Bravo G
6 Dani Alves D
3 Piqué D
18 Jordi Alba D
14 J. Mascherano M
8 Iniesta M
4 I. Rakitić M
5 Busquets M
10 L. Messi F
9 L. Suárez F
11 Neymar F
Bench (7)
7 A. Turan
1 M. ter Stegen
12 Rafinha
15 Bartra
17 Munir
20 Sergi Roberto
23 T. Vermaelen

Real Madrid

1 K. Navas G
4 Sergio Ramos D
3 Pepe D
12 Marcelo D
15 Daniel Carvajal D
19 L. Modrić M
11 G. Bale F
8 T. Kroos M
14 Casemiro M
7 Cristiano Ronaldo F
9 K. Benzema F
Bench (7)
20 Jesé
18 Lucas Vázquez
6 Nacho
10 J. Rodríguez
13 Kiko Casilla
22 Isco
23 Danilo

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Alejandro Hernandez · 223 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,6 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.