La Liga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Barcelona
Real Madrid
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Barcelona
|
30 | 24 | 4 | 2 | +62 | 76 |
| 2 |
Ath Madrid
|
31 | 22 | 4 | 5 | +36 | 70 |
| 3 |
Real Madrid
|
30 | 20 | 6 | 4 | +59 | 66 |
| 4 |
Villarreal
|
30 | 15 | 9 | 6 | +12 | 54 |
| 5 |
Sevilla
|
30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | +8 | 48 |
| 6 |
Celta
|
30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | -8 | 48 |
| 7 |
Ath Bilbao
|
30 | 14 | 5 | 11 | +9 | 47 |
| 8 |
Malaga
|
30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | +1 | 39 |
| 9 |
Eibar
|
30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | +0 | 38 |
| 10 |
La Coruna
|
30 | 7 | 15 | 8 | -4 | 36 |
| 11 |
Las Palmas
|
31 | 10 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 36 |
| 12 |
Sociedad
|
30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | -4 | 35 |
| 13 |
Espanol
|
30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | -25 | 35 |
| 14 |
Valencia
|
31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | -4 | 34 |
| 15 |
Betis
|
31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | -17 | 34 |
| 16 |
Vallecano
|
31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -20 | 31 |
| 17 |
Granada
|
30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | -24 | 28 |
| 18 |
Getafe
|
31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | -26 | 28 |
| 19 |
Sp Gijon
|
30 | 7 | 6 | 17 | -20 | 27 |
| 20 |
Levante
|
30 | 6 | 6 | 18 | -26 | 24 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
L. Modrić
M
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Villarreal
Barcelona
Barcelona
Getafe
Eibar
Barcelona
Vallecano
Barcelona
Barcelona
Sevilla
Alejandro Hernandez · 223 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.