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Championship

Referee: Andy Davies

Aston Villa

U U U T U

2–0

Full-time

Rotherham

T T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Rotherham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 59%

100%

17%

Average goals

3,3

1,8

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,2

This season — Championship · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 36%

29%

43%

Points per game

1,4

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

57%

29%

Both score Ø 65%

100%

29%

Average goals

3,4

2,4

Scored

1,7

0,9

Conceded

1,7

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

59% Possession 41%

14 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 3

2 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 12. · Rotherham 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brentford	7	4	2	1	+8	14
2	Bristol City	7	4	2	1	+6	14
3	Middlesbrough	7	4	2	1	+6	14
4	Leeds	6	3	3	0	+7	12
5	Derby	6	4	0	2	+4	12
6	Sheffield United	7	4	0	3	+3	12
7	Swansea	7	3	3	1	+2	12
8	West Brom	7	3	2	2	+6	11
9	Sheffield Weds	7	3	2	2	+0	11
10	Bolton	7	3	2	2	-1	11
11	Wigan	7	3	1	3	+1	10
12	Aston Villa	7	2	4	1	+0	10
13	Blackburn	7	2	4	1	-1	10
14	Rotherham	7	3	0	4	-5	9
15	Nott'm Forest	7	1	5	1	+0	8
16	Norwich	7	2	2	3	-2	8
17	Hull	7	2	1	4	-3	7
18	QPR	7	2	1	4	-9	7
19	Millwall	7	1	3	3	-2	6
20	Stoke	7	1	3	3	-4	6
21	Birmingham	7	0	5	2	-2	5
22	Reading	7	1	2	4	-3	5
23	Preston	7	1	2	4	-5	5
24	Ipswich	7	0	3	4	-6	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brentford	4	4	0	0	+9	12
2	Middlesbrough	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Rotherham	4	3	0	1	+2	9
4	Sheffield Weds	4	2	2	0	+2	8
5	Leeds	3	2	1	0	+4	7
6	Wigan	3	2	1	0	+2	7
7	Bristol City	4	2	1	1	+2	7
8	West Brom	3	2	0	1	+6	6
9	Derby	2	2	0	0	+4	6
10	Sheffield United	3	2	0	1	+3	6
11	Blackburn	4	1	3	0	+1	6
12	Norwich	4	2	0	2	-1	6
13	Aston Villa	3	1	2	0	+1	5
14	Nott'm Forest	3	1	2	0	+1	5
15	Preston	4	1	2	1	+0	5
16	Millwall	4	1	2	1	+0	5
17	Swansea	4	1	2	1	+0	5
18	Birmingham	4	0	4	0	+0	4
19	Stoke	3	1	1	1	-1	4
20	Bolton	4	1	1	2	-3	4
21	Ipswich	3	0	3	0	+0	3
22	Hull	4	1	0	3	-2	3
23	QPR	3	1	0	2	-3	3
24	Reading	3	0	0	3	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bristol City	3	2	1	0	+4	7
2	Bolton	3	2	1	0	+2	7
3	Swansea	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Derby	4	2	0	2	+0	6
5	Sheffield United	4	2	0	2	+0	6
6	Leeds	3	1	2	0	+3	5
7	Middlesbrough	4	1	2	1	+1	5
8	West Brom	4	1	2	1	+0	5
9	Reading	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Aston Villa	4	1	2	1	-1	5
11	Hull	3	1	1	1	-1	4
12	Blackburn	3	1	1	1	-2	4
13	QPR	4	1	1	2	-6	4
14	Wigan	4	1	0	3	-1	3
15	Nott'm Forest	4	0	3	1	-1	3
16	Sheffield Weds	3	1	0	2	-2	3
17	Norwich	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Brentford	3	0	2	1	-1	2
19	Stoke	4	0	2	2	-3	2
20	Birmingham	3	0	1	2	-2	1
21	Millwall	3	0	1	2	-2	1
22	Preston	3	0	0	3	-5	0
23	Ipswich	4	0	0	4	-6	0
24	Rotherham	3	0	0	3	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.