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Championship

Referee: Tony Harrington

Millwall

U T T T U

2–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

U S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

2,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,3

This season — Championship · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 18%

27%

Points per game

0,6

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

55%

Both score Ø 78%

64%

91%

Average goals

2,6

3,4

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

38% Possession 62%

18 Shots 6

4 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Millwall 22. · Aston Villa 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	11	6	4	1	+10	22
2	Sheffield United	11	7	1	3	+7	22
3	West Brom	11	6	3	2	+11	21
4	Leeds	11	5	5	1	+10	20
5	Brentford	12	4	6	2	+6	18
6	Norwich	11	5	3	3	+1	18
7	Derby	10	5	2	3	+5	17
8	Swansea	11	4	5	2	+4	17
9	Wigan	11	5	2	4	+2	17
10	Bristol City	11	4	4	3	+3	16
11	Nott'm Forest	11	3	7	1	+2	16
12	Sheffield Weds	11	4	4	3	+0	16
13	Aston Villa	11	3	6	2	+1	15
14	Blackburn	11	3	6	2	-2	15
15	Bolton	11	4	3	4	-4	15
16	Stoke	11	3	4	4	-2	13
17	QPR	11	4	1	6	-10	13
18	Birmingham	11	1	8	2	-1	11
19	Rotherham	11	3	2	6	-8	11
20	Reading	11	2	3	6	-2	9
21	Hull	11	2	2	7	-8	8
22	Millwall	11	1	4	6	-7	7
23	Ipswich	11	0	6	5	-8	6
24	Preston	11	1	3	7	-10	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brentford	6	4	2	0	+9	14
2	Wigan	6	4	2	0	+4	14
3	Middlesbrough	5	4	1	0	+7	13
4	West Brom	5	4	0	1	+10	12
5	Nott'm Forest	6	3	3	0	+3	12
6	Leeds	6	3	2	1	+6	11
7	Derby	5	3	2	0	+6	11
8	Rotherham	6	3	2	1	+2	11
9	Sheffield United	5	3	1	1	+4	10
10	Sheffield Weds	6	2	4	0	+2	10
11	Stoke	6	3	1	2	+1	10
12	Aston Villa	6	2	3	1	+2	9
13	Norwich	5	3	0	2	+0	9
14	Swansea	5	2	2	1	+3	8
15	Bristol City	5	2	2	1	+2	8
16	Blackburn	6	1	4	1	-1	7
17	Bolton	5	2	1	2	-2	7
18	QPR	5	2	0	3	-2	6
19	Birmingham	5	0	5	0	+0	5
20	Preston	5	1	2	2	-1	5
21	Millwall	5	1	2	2	-1	5
22	Ipswich	6	0	5	1	-2	5
23	Hull	6	1	1	4	-3	4
24	Reading	6	1	0	5	-2	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	6	4	0	2	+3	12
2	Leeds	5	2	3	0	+4	9
3	Middlesbrough	6	2	3	1	+3	9
4	West Brom	6	2	3	1	+1	9
5	Norwich	6	2	3	1	+1	9
6	Swansea	6	2	3	1	+1	9
7	Bristol City	6	2	2	2	+1	8
8	Blackburn	5	2	2	1	-1	8
9	Bolton	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	QPR	6	2	1	3	-8	7
11	Reading	5	1	3	1	+0	6
12	Aston Villa	5	1	3	1	-1	6
13	Birmingham	6	1	3	2	-1	6
14	Derby	5	2	0	3	-1	6
15	Sheffield Weds	5	2	0	3	-2	6
16	Nott'm Forest	5	0	4	1	-1	4
17	Brentford	6	0	4	2	-3	4
18	Hull	5	1	1	3	-5	4
19	Wigan	5	1	0	4	-2	3
20	Stoke	5	0	3	2	-3	3
21	Millwall	6	0	2	4	-6	2
22	Ipswich	5	0	1	4	-6	1
23	Preston	6	0	1	5	-9	1
24	Rotherham	5	0	0	5	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.