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Championship

Referee: Paul Tierney

Stoke

U T S T U

1–0

Full-time

Swansea

U U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,0

1,5

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,7

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,2

This season — Championship · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 29%

14%

43%

Points per game

0,9

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

71%

43%

Both score Ø 57%

71%

43%

Average goals

3,1

1,7

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,9

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

49% Possession 51%

8 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 20. · Swansea 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	7	4	3	0	+10	15
2	Brentford	8	4	3	1	+8	15
3	Bristol City	7	4	2	1	+6	14
4	Middlesbrough	7	4	2	1	+6	14
5	Derby	7	4	1	2	+4	13
6	Aston Villa	8	3	4	1	+2	13
7	Wigan	8	4	1	3	+2	13
8	Sheffield United	7	4	0	3	+3	12
9	Swansea	7	3	3	1	+2	12
10	West Brom	7	3	2	2	+6	11
11	Sheffield Weds	7	3	2	2	+0	11
12	Bolton	7	3	2	2	-1	11
13	Blackburn	8	2	5	1	-1	11
14	Rotherham	8	3	0	5	-7	9
15	Nott'm Forest	7	1	5	1	+0	8
16	Norwich	7	2	2	3	-2	8
17	Hull	8	2	1	5	-4	7
18	QPR	7	2	1	4	-9	7
19	Millwall	7	1	3	3	-2	6
20	Stoke	7	1	3	3	-4	6
21	Birmingham	7	0	5	2	-2	5
22	Reading	7	1	2	4	-3	5
23	Preston	8	1	2	5	-8	5
24	Ipswich	8	0	4	4	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brentford	4	4	0	0	+9	12
2	Leeds	4	3	1	0	+7	10
3	Wigan	4	3	1	0	+3	10
4	Middlesbrough	3	3	0	0	+5	9
5	Rotherham	4	3	0	1	+2	9
6	Aston Villa	4	2	2	0	+3	8
7	Sheffield Weds	4	2	2	0	+2	8
8	Derby	3	2	1	0	+4	7
9	Bristol City	4	2	1	1	+2	7
10	West Brom	3	2	0	1	+6	6
11	Sheffield United	3	2	0	1	+3	6
12	Blackburn	4	1	3	0	+1	6
13	Norwich	4	2	0	2	-1	6
14	Nott'm Forest	3	1	2	0	+1	5
15	Preston	4	1	2	1	+0	5
16	Millwall	4	1	2	1	+0	5
17	Swansea	4	1	2	1	+0	5
18	Ipswich	4	0	4	0	+0	4
19	Birmingham	4	0	4	0	+0	4
20	Stoke	3	1	1	1	-1	4
21	Bolton	4	1	1	2	-3	4
22	Hull	4	1	0	3	-2	3
23	QPR	3	1	0	2	-3	3
24	Reading	3	0	0	3	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bristol City	3	2	1	0	+4	7
2	Bolton	3	2	1	0	+2	7
3	Swansea	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Derby	4	2	0	2	+0	6
5	Sheffield United	4	2	0	2	+0	6
6	Leeds	3	1	2	0	+3	5
7	Middlesbrough	4	1	2	1	+1	5
8	West Brom	4	1	2	1	+0	5
9	Reading	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Aston Villa	4	1	2	1	-1	5
11	Blackburn	4	1	2	1	-2	5
12	Hull	4	1	1	2	-2	4
13	QPR	4	1	1	2	-6	4
14	Wigan	4	1	0	3	-1	3
15	Brentford	4	0	3	1	-1	3
16	Nott'm Forest	4	0	3	1	-1	3
17	Sheffield Weds	3	1	0	2	-2	3
18	Norwich	3	0	2	1	-1	2
19	Stoke	4	0	2	2	-3	2
20	Birmingham	3	0	1	2	-2	1
21	Millwall	3	0	1	2	-2	1
22	Ipswich	4	0	0	4	-6	0
23	Preston	4	0	0	4	-8	0
24	Rotherham	4	0	0	4	-9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.