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Championship

Referee: Peter Bankes

Aston Villa

T U S T U

3–3

Full-time

Preston

U T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Preston

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

2,7

4,0

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,5

2,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,3

This season — Championship · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 20%

30%

10%

Points per game

1,4

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

50%

60%

Both score Ø 70%

90%

50%

Average goals

3,1

3,2

Scored

1,6

1,1

Conceded

1,5

2,1

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

42% Possession 58%

12 Shots 19

6 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 4

0 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 15. · Preston 24. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	10	6	2	2	+11	20
2	Middlesbrough	10	5	4	1	+8	19
3	Sheffield United	10	6	1	3	+5	19
4	Norwich	10	5	2	3	+1	17
5	Leeds	9	4	4	1	+9	16
6	Brentford	10	4	4	2	+6	16
7	Derby	9	5	1	3	+5	16
8	Swansea	10	4	4	2	+4	16
9	Wigan	10	5	1	4	+2	16
10	Bristol City	10	4	3	3	+3	15
11	Nott'm Forest	10	3	6	1	+2	15
12	Sheffield Weds	10	4	3	3	+0	15
13	Blackburn	10	3	6	1	+0	15
14	Bolton	10	4	3	3	-2	15
15	Aston Villa	10	3	5	2	+1	14
16	Birmingham	10	1	7	2	-1	10
17	Stoke	10	2	4	4	-4	10
18	Rotherham	10	3	1	6	-8	10
19	QPR	10	3	1	6	-11	10
20	Reading	10	2	3	5	-1	9
21	Hull	10	2	2	6	-7	8
22	Ipswich	10	0	6	4	-6	6
23	Millwall	10	1	3	6	-7	6
24	Preston	10	1	2	7	-10	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brentford	5	4	1	0	+9	13
2	Middlesbrough	5	4	1	0	+7	13
3	Wigan	5	4	1	0	+4	13
4	West Brom	5	4	0	1	+10	12
5	Nott'm Forest	5	3	2	0	+3	11
6	Leeds	5	3	1	1	+6	10
7	Derby	4	3	1	0	+6	10
8	Sheffield United	5	3	1	1	+4	10
9	Rotherham	5	3	1	1	+2	10
10	Sheffield Weds	5	2	3	0	+2	9
11	Norwich	5	3	0	2	+0	9
12	Swansea	5	2	2	1	+3	8
13	Aston Villa	5	2	2	1	+2	8
14	Bristol City	5	2	2	1	+2	8
15	Blackburn	5	1	4	0	+1	7
16	Stoke	5	2	1	2	-1	7
17	Bolton	5	2	1	2	-2	7
18	QPR	5	2	0	3	-2	6
19	Ipswich	5	0	5	0	+0	5
20	Birmingham	5	0	5	0	+0	5
21	Preston	5	1	2	2	-1	5
22	Millwall	5	1	2	2	-1	5
23	Hull	5	1	1	3	-2	4
24	Reading	5	1	0	4	-1	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	5	3	0	2	+1	9
2	West Brom	5	2	2	1	+1	8
3	Norwich	5	2	2	1	+1	8
4	Swansea	5	2	2	1	+1	8
5	Bolton	5	2	2	1	+0	8
6	Blackburn	5	2	2	1	-1	8
7	Bristol City	5	2	1	2	+1	7
8	Leeds	4	1	3	0	+3	6
9	Middlesbrough	5	1	3	1	+1	6
10	Reading	5	1	3	1	+0	6
11	Aston Villa	5	1	3	1	-1	6
12	Derby	5	2	0	3	-1	6
13	Sheffield Weds	5	2	0	3	-2	6
14	Birmingham	5	1	2	2	-1	5
15	Nott'm Forest	5	0	4	1	-1	4
16	Hull	5	1	1	3	-5	4
17	QPR	5	1	1	3	-9	4
18	Wigan	5	1	0	4	-2	3
19	Stoke	5	0	3	2	-3	3
20	Brentford	5	0	3	2	-3	3
21	Ipswich	5	0	1	4	-6	1
22	Millwall	5	0	1	4	-6	1
23	Preston	5	0	0	5	-9	0
24	Rotherham	5	0	0	5	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.