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Pro League

Referee: N Laforge

Dender

T U T S U

1–2

Full-time

Genk

T T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dender Genk

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,0

3,2

Scored

0,5

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Pro League · 18/12 matches

Win Ø 18%

11%

25%

Points per game

0,6

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

44%

67%

Both score Ø 74%

56%

92%

Average goals

2,4

3,3

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

2,81 xG 1,07

51% Possession 49%

22 Shots 8

7 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

8 Corners 2

1 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 10

5 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dender 16. · Genk 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Club Brugge	15	11	1	3	+13	+4.4	34
2	St. Gilloise	14	9	5	0	+21	+16.7	32
3	St Truiden	14	9	2	3	+5	+11.9	29
4	Mechelen	15	7	6	2	+7	-2.4	27
5	Gent	13	8	2	3	+9	+4.3	26
6	Antwerp	16	6	4	6	+4	-0.1	22
7	Westerlo	17	5	6	6	-2	+3.8	21
8	Waregem	18	6	3	9	-4	-6.6	21
9	Anderlecht	15	5	5	5	+0	+4.8	20
10	Charleroi	15	5	3	7	-2	-1.6	18
11	Cercle Brugge	19	4	6	9	-6	-2.9	18
12	RAAL La Louviere	18	4	6	8	-6	-7.6	18
13	Standard	16	5	3	8	-11	-9.4	18
14	Oud-Heverlee Leuven	15	3	5	7	-7	-4.6	14
15	Genk	12	3	4	5	-3	+0.9	13
16	Dender	18	2	5	11	-18	-11.5	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	St. Gilloise	6	6	0	0	+16	+9.0	18
2	Club Brugge	8	5	1	2	+4	+0.5	16
3	Gent	6	5	0	1	+9	+3.2	15
4	St Truiden	8	5	0	3	+0	+5.1	15
5	Waregem	9	4	1	4	+1	-1.3	13
6	Antwerp	9	3	3	3	+1	-0.1	12
7	Westerlo	7	3	2	2	+4	+5.8	11
8	Mechelen	7	2	4	1	+1	+1.1	10
9	RAAL La Louviere	9	2	4	3	-2	-4.7	10
10	Anderlecht	7	2	3	2	+2	+5.3	9
11	Charleroi	7	2	3	2	+0	-0.4	9
12	Genk	7	2	2	3	-2	+3.6	8
13	Oud-Heverlee Leuven	8	1	3	4	-1	-1.4	6
14	Standard	8	1	3	4	-7	-3.0	6
15	Cercle Brugge	11	1	3	7	-9	-2.0	6
16	Dender	8	1	1	6	-10	-5.6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Club Brugge	7	6	0	1	+9	+3.9	18
2	Mechelen	8	5	2	1	+6	-3.5	17
3	St. Gilloise	8	3	5	0	+5	+7.7	14
4	St Truiden	6	4	2	0	+5	+6.8	14
5	Cercle Brugge	8	3	3	2	+3	-0.8	12
6	Standard	8	4	0	4	-4	-6.4	12
7	Gent	7	3	2	2	+0	+1.1	11
8	Anderlecht	8	3	2	3	-2	-0.5	11
9	Antwerp	7	3	1	3	+3	-0.0	10
10	Westerlo	10	2	4	4	-6	-2.0	10
11	Charleroi	8	3	0	5	-2	-1.2	9
12	RAAL La Louviere	9	2	2	5	-4	-3.0	8
13	Waregem	9	2	2	5	-5	-5.2	8
14	Oud-Heverlee Leuven	7	2	2	3	-6	-3.1	8
15	Dender	10	1	4	5	-8	-5.9	7
16	Genk	5	1	2	2	-1	-2.7	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.