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Ligue 1

Referee: S Frappart

Nice

U T S S T

2–2

Full-time

Brest

T U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nice Brest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,3

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 32%

32%

Points per game

1,1

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

58%

Both score Ø 58%

68%

47%

Average goals

3,2

2,9

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,9

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

1,20 xG 1,68

60% Possession 40%

15 Shots 12

7 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 5

1 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 21

5 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nice 14. · Brest 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	20	15	1	4	+18	+12.0	46
2	Paris SG	19	14	3	2	+26	+18.6	45
3	Marseille	20	12	3	5	+24	+13.1	39
4	Lyon	20	12	3	5	+13	+9.7	39
5	Lille	20	10	2	8	+4	+5.0	32
6	Rennes	20	8	7	5	-1	-0.1	31
7	Strasbourg	19	9	3	7	+9	+6.5	30
8	Toulouse	19	8	5	6	+8	+1.6	29
9	Lorient	20	7	7	6	-4	+0.5	28
10	Monaco	20	8	3	9	-1	+4.9	27
11	Angers	19	6	5	8	-5	-13.9	23
12	Brest	19	6	4	9	-7	+0.7	22
13	Paris FC	20	5	6	9	-8	-7.0	21
14	Nice	19	6	3	10	-11	-10.8	21
15	Le Havre	20	4	8	8	-9	-5.7	20
16	Nantes	20	3	5	12	-17	-11.8	14
17	Auxerre	19	3	3	13	-15	-7.5	12
18	Metz	19	3	3	13	-24	-15.8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	10	9	0	1	+14	+13.0	27
2	Paris SG	9	8	1	0	+18	+10.1	25
3	Lyon	10	8	0	2	+10	+9.6	24
4	Marseille	10	7	2	1	+16	+8.8	23
5	Strasbourg	9	6	1	2	+11	+10.1	19
6	Lille	10	6	1	3	+5	+6.8	19
7	Monaco	11	6	1	4	+4	+6.7	19
8	Lorient	10	5	4	1	+4	+4.2	19
9	Rennes	10	5	3	2	+8	+8.5	18
10	Toulouse	10	4	3	3	+4	+3.7	15
11	Brest	10	4	3	3	+1	+8.1	15
12	Angers	9	4	2	3	+2	-3.2	14
13	Le Havre	10	3	5	2	+2	+6.2	14
14	Nice	9	4	2	3	+0	-1.1	14
15	Auxerre	10	3	1	6	-2	+1.8	10
16	Paris FC	10	2	4	4	-3	-0.8	10
17	Metz	9	2	2	5	-6	-2.8	8
18	Nantes	10	1	2	7	-11	-6.7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	10	6	2	2	+8	+8.4	20
2	Lens	10	6	1	3	+4	-1.0	19
3	Marseille	10	5	1	4	+8	+4.2	16
4	Lyon	10	4	3	3	+3	+0.1	15
5	Toulouse	9	4	2	3	+4	-2.1	14
6	Lille	10	4	1	5	-1	-1.7	13
7	Rennes	10	3	4	3	-9	-8.6	13
8	Strasbourg	10	3	2	5	-2	-3.7	11
9	Paris FC	10	3	2	5	-5	-6.2	11
10	Nantes	10	2	3	5	-6	-5.1	9
11	Angers	10	2	3	5	-7	-10.7	9
12	Lorient	10	2	3	5	-8	-3.7	9
13	Monaco	9	2	2	5	-5	-1.8	8
14	Brest	9	2	1	6	-8	-7.4	7
15	Nice	10	2	1	7	-11	-9.7	7
16	Le Havre	10	1	3	6	-11	-11.9	6
17	Metz	10	1	1	8	-18	-13.0	4
18	Auxerre	9	0	2	7	-13	-9.3	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.