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2. Bundesliga

Referee: C Dingert

Fortuna Dusseldorf

T T S S T

2–1

Full-time

Paderborn

T S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fortuna Dusseldorf Paderborn

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,2

3,2

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 45%

32%

58%

Points per game

1,1

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

53%

58%

Both score Ø 56%

53%

58%

Average goals

2,4

2,7

Scored

0,9

1,6

Conceded

1,5

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,79 xG 0,83

63% Possession 37%

8 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 1

3 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Fortuna Dusseldorf 16. · Paderborn 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Schalke 04	20	12	3	5	+10	+5.5	39
2	Elversberg	20	11	5	4	+17	-0.2	38
3	Darmstadt	19	10	7	2	+14	+6.8	37
4	Paderborn	19	11	3	5	+9	+10.5	36
5	Hannover	20	10	5	5	+8	+7.1	35
6	Kaiserslautern	20	9	4	7	+8	-1.9	31
7	Hertha	19	8	6	5	+5	-2.2	30
8	Bochum	20	7	5	8	+3	+3.7	26
9	Nurnberg	20	7	5	8	-5	+1.6	26
10	Karlsruhe	20	7	5	8	-7	-14.4	26
11	Holstein Kiel	20	6	6	8	-1	-7.2	24
12	Braunschweig	20	7	3	10	-11	+1.2	24
13	Preußen Münster	20	5	6	9	-7	-5.0	21
14	Bielefeld	19	5	5	9	+2	+0.1	20
15	Magdeburg	20	6	2	12	-7	+5.1	20
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	19	6	2	11	-12	-4.8	20
17	Dresden	19	5	4	10	-7	+0.8	19
18	Greuther Furth	20	5	4	11	-19	-6.6	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Darmstadt	10	7	3	0	+12	+8.5	24
2	Kaiserslautern	11	7	1	3	+10	+1.7	22
3	Schalke 04	9	7	1	1	+6	+3.2	22
4	Elversberg	9	5	4	0	+10	-0.4	19
5	Paderborn	10	6	1	3	+3	+6.3	19
6	Nurnberg	11	5	4	2	+2	+1.7	19
7	Bochum	10	5	2	3	+5	+6.8	17
8	Hannover	9	5	1	3	+2	+5.6	16
9	Karlsruhe	9	5	1	3	+0	-6.2	16
10	Hertha	10	4	3	3	-1	+0.3	15
11	Bielefeld	10	4	2	4	+7	+6.4	14
12	Holstein Kiel	10	4	2	4	+2	-1.2	14
13	Preußen Münster	10	3	5	2	+1	+0.4	14
14	Braunschweig	11	4	2	5	-7	+1.5	14
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	10	3	2	5	-6	-1.5	11
16	Greuther Furth	9	2	3	4	-9	-4.0	9
17	Dresden	9	2	2	5	-2	+4.6	8
18	Magdeburg	10	2	1	7	-6	+3.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Elversberg	11	6	1	4	+7	+0.2	19
2	Hannover	11	5	4	2	+6	+1.6	19
3	Paderborn	9	5	2	2	+6	+4.1	17
4	Schalke 04	11	5	2	4	+4	+2.3	17
5	Hertha	9	4	3	2	+6	-2.5	15
6	Darmstadt	9	3	4	2	+2	-1.7	13
7	Magdeburg	10	4	1	5	-1	+2.1	13
8	Dresden	10	3	2	5	-5	-3.8	11
9	Holstein Kiel	10	2	4	4	-3	-6.1	10
10	Braunschweig	9	3	1	5	-4	-0.4	10
11	Karlsruhe	11	2	4	5	-7	-8.2	10
12	Greuther Furth	11	3	1	7	-10	-2.7	10
13	Bochum	10	2	3	5	-2	-3.1	9
14	Kaiserslautern	9	2	3	4	-2	-3.6	9
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	9	3	0	6	-6	-3.2	9
16	Nurnberg	9	2	1	6	-7	-0.1	7
17	Preußen Münster	10	2	1	7	-8	-5.4	7
18	Bielefeld	9	1	3	5	-5	-6.3	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.