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Europa League
Referee: Horatiu Fesnic
Genk
T T T S U
2–1
Full-time
Malmo FF
T S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Genk Malmo FF
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
17%
17%
Points per game
0,7
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,3
2,2
Scored
1,3
0,7
Conceded
2,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,7
-0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 9/9 matches
Win Ø 39%
56%
22%
Points per game
1,8
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
44%
56%
Both score Ø 39%
44%
33%
Average goals
2,7
2,3
Scored
1,7
0,9
Conceded
1,0
1,4
Goal diff per game
+0,7
-0,6
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

3,27 xG 0,54
62% Possession 38%
25 Shots 8
9 Shots on target 3
5 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 7
8 Corners 6
3 Offside 1
8 Free kicks against 13
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Genk Malmo FF
4′
⚽ T. Ali 0–1
K. Busuladzic
Matte Smets ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
43′
1–1 D. Heymans ⚽
45′
Half-time 1–1
Yaimar Medina 🟨
47′
61′
🔁 E. Ekong
↦ A. Christiansen
61′
🔁 S. Haksabanovic
↦ A. Sigurdsson
J. Kayembe 🔁
↦ Y. Medina
62′
K. Karetsas 🔁
↦ J. Steuckers
62′
A. Bibout 🔁
↦ I. Bangoura
62′
72′
🟨 Kenan Busuladzic
Y. Sor 🔁
↦ J. Ito
72′
73′
🔁 S. Soumah
↦ T. Ali
73′
🔁 E. Botheim
↦ D. T. Gudjohnsen
81′
🔁 O. Lewicki
↦ M. Frejd Palsson
2–1 K. Karetsas ⚽
D. Heymans
82′
R. Mirisola 🔁
↦ Oh Hyeon-Gyu
83′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Genk

4-3-3
26 T. Lawal G
77 Z. El Ouahdi D
3 M. Sadick D
6 M. Smets D
19 Y. Medina D
8 B. Heynen M
21 I. Bangoura M
38 D. Heymans M
7 J. Steuckers F
9 Oh Hyeon-Gyu F
10 J. Ito F
Bench (12)
1 H. Van Crombrugge
71 B. Stevens
14 Y. Sor
18 J. Kayembe
20 K. Karetsas
23 A. Bibout
24 N. Sattlberger
27 K. Nkuba
29 R. Mirisola
44 J. Kongolo
56 A. De Wannemacker
99 J. Erabi

Coach: Nicky Hayen

Malmo FF

4-4-2
33 M. Ellborg G
2 J. Karlsson D
19 C. Rosler D
44 M. Frejd Palsson D
48 T. Lundbergh D
22 T. Ali M
40 K. Busuladzic M
23 L. Johnsen M
8 A. Sigurdsson M
10 A. Christiansen F
32 D. T. Gudjohnsen F
Bench (11)
27 J. Dahlin
6 O. Lewicki
11 E. Ekong
13 M. Olsson
15 S. Soumah
20 E. Botheim
29 S. Haksabanovic
37 A. Skogmar
38 H. Bolin
46 A. Palac
51 V. Hidalgo

Coach: Endika Gavina

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.