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Coppa Italia
Referee: A Rapuano
Udinese
U S S T T
1–0
Full-time
Padova
S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Udinese Padova
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,2
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 17%
17%
17%
Both score Ø 17%
17%
17%
Average goals
2,2
2,2
Scored
1,2
1,2
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

47% Possession 53%
10 Shots 8
2 Shots on target 0
4 Blocked shots 4
0 Goalkeeper saves 1
0 Corners 6
0 Offside 4
13 Free kicks against 13
3 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Fiorentina 1 1 0 0 +3 3
2 Monza 1 1 0 0 +3 3
3 Ascoli 1 1 0 0 +2 3
4 Parma 1 1 0 0 +2 3
5 Arezzo 2 1 0 1 +1 3
6 Cagliari 1 1 0 0 +1 3
7 Benevento 2 1 0 1 -1 3
8 Catanzaro 1 0 1 0 +0 1
9 Sudtirol 1 0 1 0 +0 1
10 Vicenza 1 0 1 0 +0 1
11 Catania 2 0 1 1 -2 1
12 Ravenna 1 0 0 1 -2 0
13 Potenza 1 0 0 1 -2 0
14 Union Brescia 1 0 0 1 -2 0
15 Avellino 1 0 0 1 -3 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Udinese Padova
Jesper Karlström 🟨
32′
1–0 K. Davis
O. Solet
35′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 M. Bortolussi
↦ K. Lasagna
Nicolò Zaniolo 🟨
53′
A. Buksa 🔁
↦ K. Davis
62′
I. Gueye 🔁
↦ N. Zaniolo
63′
63′
🔁 M. Lovato
↦ C. Pastina
63′
🔁 F. Di Mariano
↦ M. Pompetti
70′
🔁 K. Varas
↦ G. Caprari
Adam Buksa 🟨
73′
L. Miller 🔁
↦ J. Karlstrom
73′
80′
🔁 M. Cocchi
↦ F. Sgarbi
U. Gomez 🔁
↦ J. Ekkelenkamp
83′
J. Arizala 🔁
↦ H. Kamara
83′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Udinese

3-4-2-1
40 M. Okoye G
14 J. Abankwah D
16 M. Palma D
28 O. Solet D
23 M. Vojvoda M
8 J. Karlstrom M
24 J. Piotrowski M
11 H. Kamara M
10 N. Zaniolo F
32 J. Ekkelenkamp F
9 K. Davis F
Bench (15)
93 D. Padelli
99 E. Piana
27 C. Kabasele
77 E. Ebosse
13 N. Bertola
4 S. Lovric
38 L. Miller
46 U. Gomez
79 D. Pejicic
22 B. Mlacic
6 O. Zarraga
20 J. Arizala
29 A. Camara
18 A. Buksa
7 I. Gueye

Coach: Kosta Runjaic

Padova

3-5-2
22 A. Sorrentino G
27 A. Dellavalle D
32 F. Sgarbi D
58 C. Pastina D
24 L. Carissoni M
14 M. Pompetti M
21 E. Zuelli M
8 P. Fusi M
98 L. Zanimacchia M
15 K. Lasagna F
10 G. Caprari F
Bench (13)
12 S. Scaglia
1 L. Mouquet
18 E. Silletti
34 M. Cocchi
13 T. Bordoni
5 M. Lovato
72 C. Faedo
6 G. Giunti
7 K. Varas
4 J. Bacci
23 F. Di Mariano
20 M. Bortolussi
17 A. Capelli

Coach: Roberto Breda

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

A Rapuano · 81 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,32 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.