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Primeira Liga

Referee: J Bessa

Alverca

T T S S T

1–1

Full-time

Estrela

U S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alverca Estrela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,0

4,0

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

2,3

2,8

Goal diff per game

-1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 29%

37%

21%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

58%

Both score Ø 45%

42%

47%

Average goals

2,7

3,1

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,7

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,89 xG 0,88

57% Possession 43%

8 Shots 5

4 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 2

0 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Alverca 10. · Estrela 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	19	18	1	0	+36	+25.6	55
2	Sp Lisbon	19	15	3	1	+42	+30.4	48
3	Benfica	19	13	6	0	+31	+22.9	45
4	Sp Braga	19	9	6	4	+19	+16.4	33
5	Gil Vicente	19	8	7	4	+8	+3.0	31
6	Moreirense	20	9	3	8	-1	-6.7	30
7	Famalicao	19	8	5	6	+10	+7.4	29
8	Estoril	20	8	5	7	+8	-2.5	29
9	Guimaraes	20	8	4	8	-6	-3.9	28
10	Alverca	19	7	2	10	-14	-3.2	23
11	Nacional	19	5	5	9	-2	-6.4	20
12	Rio Ave	20	4	8	8	-16	-16.1	20
13	Arouca	20	5	5	10	-21	-17.6	20
14	Estrela	19	4	7	8	-13	-9.5	19
15	Santa Clara	20	4	5	11	-9	+1.9	17
16	Casa Pia	19	3	6	10	-18	-18.5	15
17	Tondela	19	3	3	13	-21	-7.0	12
18	AVS	19	0	5	14	-33	-16.0	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	9	8	1	0	+17	+13.9	25
2	Sp Lisbon	9	7	1	1	+27	+18.7	22
3	Benfica	10	6	4	0	+16	+14.9	22
4	Moreirense	9	6	1	2	+3	-1.7	19
5	Estoril	10	5	3	2	+7	-0.4	18
6	Guimaraes	11	5	3	3	+1	-2.1	18
7	Sp Braga	9	5	2	2	+12	+9.9	17
8	Gil Vicente	9	5	2	2	+5	+3.0	17
9	Alverca	10	5	1	4	-5	+4.1	16
10	Famalicao	10	4	2	4	+8	+4.1	14
11	Santa Clara	11	3	2	6	-3	+3.6	11
12	Nacional	9	3	1	5	-1	-3.5	10
13	Estrela	10	2	4	4	-4	+0.4	10
14	Rio Ave	10	2	3	5	-8	-6.4	9
15	Arouca	10	2	3	5	-10	-7.9	9
16	Tondela	9	1	2	6	-7	-3.3	5
17	Casa Pia	9	0	5	4	-8	-9.7	5
18	AVS	10	0	3	7	-12	-7.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	10	10	0	0	+19	+11.7	30
2	Sp Lisbon	10	8	2	0	+15	+11.7	26
3	Benfica	9	7	2	0	+15	+8.0	23
4	Sp Braga	10	4	4	2	+7	+6.5	16
5	Famalicao	9	4	3	2	+2	+3.3	15
6	Gil Vicente	10	3	5	2	+3	-0.1	14
7	Estoril	10	3	2	5	+1	-2.2	11
8	Moreirense	11	3	2	6	-4	-5.0	11
9	Rio Ave	10	2	5	3	-8	-9.8	11
10	Arouca	10	3	2	5	-11	-9.7	11
11	Nacional	10	2	4	4	-1	-2.9	10
12	Guimaraes	9	3	1	5	-7	-1.8	10
13	Casa Pia	10	3	1	6	-10	-8.8	10
14	Estrela	9	2	3	4	-9	-9.9	9
15	Alverca	9	2	1	6	-9	-7.4	7
16	Tondela	10	2	1	7	-14	-3.7	7
17	Santa Clara	9	1	3	5	-6	-1.7	6
18	AVS	9	0	2	7	-21	-9.0	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.