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Primeira Liga

Referee: Joao Borlido Matos

Nacional

S T U U T

0–1

Full-time

Estoril

T S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 25%

20%

30%

Points per game

0,8

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

50%

30%

Both score Ø 35%

40%

30%

Average goals

2,4

2,2

Scored

0,9

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

64% Possession 36%

20 Shots 5

5 Shots on target 1

8 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 4

2 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 15. · Estoril 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	10	8	2	0	+18	26
2	Porto	10	6	3	1	+14	21
3	Sp Lisbon	10	6	3	1	+10	21
4	Guimaraes	10	6	2	2	+7	20
5	Sp Braga	10	6	2	2	+6	20
6	Chaves	11	3	6	2	+1	15
7	Rio Ave	11	4	2	5	-3	14
8	Maritimo	11	4	2	5	-3	14
9	Boavista	10	3	4	3	-1	13
10	Vitoria Setubal	11	3	4	4	-1	13
11	Belenenses	10	3	3	4	-4	12
12	Estoril	10	3	2	5	-4	11
13	Feirense	10	3	2	5	-8	11
14	Pacos Ferreira	10	2	4	4	-3	10
15	Nacional	10	2	2	6	-6	8
16	Moreirense	10	2	2	6	-6	8
17	Arouca	10	2	2	6	-9	8
18	Tondela	10	1	3	6	-8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	6	5	1	0	+11	16
2	Porto	5	4	1	0	+9	13
3	Sp Braga	5	4	1	0	+6	13
4	Benfica	4	3	1	0	+9	10
5	Boavista	5	2	2	1	+3	8
6	Guimaraes	5	2	2	1	+2	8
7	Arouca	5	2	1	2	+1	7
8	Chaves	6	1	4	1	+0	7
9	Maritimo	5	2	1	2	+0	7
10	Vitoria Setubal	6	2	1	3	-1	7
11	Pacos Ferreira	5	1	3	1	+0	6
12	Estoril	5	2	0	3	-2	6
13	Rio Ave	6	2	0	4	-4	6
14	Belenenses	4	1	2	1	-1	5
15	Tondela	5	1	1	3	-3	4
16	Nacional	5	1	1	3	-5	4
17	Feirense	5	1	1	3	-6	4
18	Moreirense	5	0	2	3	-3	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	6	5	1	0	+9	16
2	Guimaraes	5	4	0	1	+5	12
3	Porto	5	2	2	1	+5	8
4	Rio Ave	5	2	2	1	+1	8
5	Chaves	5	2	2	1	+1	8
6	Sp Braga	5	2	1	2	+0	7
7	Feirense	5	2	1	2	-2	7
8	Belenenses	6	2	1	3	-3	7
9	Maritimo	6	2	1	3	-3	7
10	Vitoria Setubal	5	1	3	1	+0	6
11	Moreirense	5	2	0	3	-3	6
12	Sp Lisbon	4	1	2	1	-1	5
13	Estoril	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	Boavista	5	1	2	2	-4	5
15	Nacional	5	1	1	3	-1	4
16	Pacos Ferreira	5	1	1	3	-3	4
17	Tondela	5	0	2	3	-5	2
18	Arouca	5	0	1	4	-10	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.