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Primeira Liga

Referee: G Correia

Nacional

T U T S T

0–0

Full-time

Casa Pia

U T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Casa Pia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

100%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,8

3,2

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 23%

25%

20%

Points per game

1,0

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

55%

Both score Ø 58%

65%

50%

Average goals

2,9

3,1

Scored

1,4

1,1

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,98 xG 0,64

69% Possession 31%

21 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

12 Corners 1

0 Offside 7

15 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 13. · Casa Pia 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	20	18	1	1	+35	+26.7	55
2	Sp Lisbon	20	16	3	1	+43	+30.9	51
3	Benfica	20	13	7	0	+31	+24.4	46
4	Gil Vicente	21	10	7	4	+14	+7.9	37
5	Sp Braga	20	10	6	4	+23	+17.9	36
6	Estoril	21	8	6	7	+8	-3.2	30
7	Moreirense	21	9	3	9	-2	-9.1	30
8	Famalicao	20	8	5	7	+5	+4.8	29
9	Guimaraes	21	8	4	9	-7	-3.9	28
10	Alverca	20	7	3	10	-14	-3.2	24
11	Estrela	21	5	8	8	-12	-9.9	23
12	Arouca	21	6	5	10	-20	-17.6	23
13	Nacional	20	5	5	10	-3	-6.9	20
14	Rio Ave	20	4	8	8	-16	-16.1	20
15	Casa Pia	20	4	6	10	-17	-19.5	18
16	Santa Clara	21	4	5	12	-10	+2.3	17
17	Tondela	21	3	5	13	-21	-7.8	14
18	AVS	20	0	5	15	-37	-17.6	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	8	1	1	+28	+19.1	25
2	Porto	9	8	1	0	+17	+13.9	25
3	Benfica	10	6	4	0	+16	+14.9	22
4	Gil Vicente	10	6	2	2	+10	+5.6	20
5	Estoril	11	5	4	2	+7	-1.0	19
6	Moreirense	10	6	1	3	+2	-4.1	19
7	Guimaraes	11	5	3	3	+1	-2.1	18
8	Sp Braga	9	5	2	2	+12	+9.9	17
9	Alverca	11	5	2	4	-5	+4.1	17
10	Famalicao	10	4	2	4	+8	+4.1	14
11	Estrela	11	3	4	4	-3	+0.0	13
12	Arouca	11	3	3	5	-9	-7.9	12
13	Santa Clara	11	3	2	6	-3	+3.6	11
14	Nacional	9	3	1	5	-1	-3.5	10
15	Rio Ave	10	2	3	5	-8	-6.4	9
16	Casa Pia	10	1	5	4	-7	-10.8	8
17	Tondela	10	1	3	6	-7	-4.8	6
18	AVS	11	0	3	8	-16	-8.6	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	11	10	0	1	+18	+12.8	30
2	Sp Lisbon	10	8	2	0	+15	+11.7	26
3	Benfica	10	7	3	0	+15	+9.5	24
4	Sp Braga	11	5	4	2	+11	+8.1	19
5	Gil Vicente	11	4	5	2	+4	+2.3	17
6	Famalicao	10	4	3	3	-3	+0.7	15
7	Estoril	10	3	2	5	+1	-2.2	11
8	Moreirense	11	3	2	6	-4	-5.0	11
9	Rio Ave	10	2	5	3	-8	-9.8	11
10	Arouca	10	3	2	5	-11	-9.7	11
11	Nacional	11	2	4	5	-2	-3.3	10
12	Guimaraes	10	3	1	6	-8	-1.8	10
13	Estrela	10	2	4	4	-9	-9.9	10
14	Casa Pia	10	3	1	6	-10	-8.8	10
15	Tondela	11	2	2	7	-14	-3.0	8
16	Alverca	9	2	1	6	-9	-7.4	7
17	Santa Clara	10	1	3	6	-7	-1.3	6
18	AVS	9	0	2	7	-21	-9.0	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.