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Primeira Liga

Referee: Joao Malheiro Pinto

Rio Ave

S S S U S

3–3

Full-time

Nacional

T U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rio Ave Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,7

0,5

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 38%

63%

13%

Points per game

2,1

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

50%

63%

Both score Ø 63%

75%

50%

Average goals

2,6

2,8

Scored

1,6

0,8

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

63% Possession 37%

14 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 3

3 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Rio Ave 5. · Nacional 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	9	7	0	2	+14	21
2	Sp Braga	9	6	3	0	+10	21
3	Sp Lisbon	9	6	1	2	+7	19
4	Benfica	9	5	2	2	+6	17
5	Rio Ave	8	5	2	1	+5	17
6	Santa Clara	9	4	2	3	+3	14
7	Moreirense	9	4	1	4	-5	13
8	Guimaraes	9	3	3	3	+1	12
9	Vitoria Setubal	9	3	2	4	+1	11
10	Belenenses	9	2	5	2	-1	11
11	Portimonense	9	3	2	4	-4	11
12	Maritimo	9	3	1	5	-6	10
13	Tondela	9	2	3	4	+0	9
14	Feirense	9	2	3	4	-3	9
15	Boavista	9	2	2	5	-6	8
16	Chaves	8	2	1	5	-6	7
17	Nacional	8	1	2	5	-10	5
18	Aves	8	1	1	6	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	5	4	1	0	+6	13
2	Porto	5	4	0	1	+10	12
3	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+7	12
4	Rio Ave	4	4	0	0	+5	12
5	Benfica	5	3	1	1	+2	10
6	Portimonense	5	2	2	1	+1	8
7	Santa Clara	5	2	1	2	+0	7
8	Moreirense	4	2	1	1	+0	7
9	Maritimo	5	2	1	2	-2	7
10	Vitoria Setubal	4	2	0	2	+2	6
11	Feirense	5	1	3	1	+0	6
12	Tondela	5	1	2	2	+0	5
13	Guimaraes	4	1	2	1	+0	5
14	Aves	4	1	1	2	+1	4
15	Chaves	3	1	1	1	+1	4
16	Belenenses	4	1	1	2	-2	4
17	Boavista	4	1	1	2	-2	4
18	Nacional	4	0	0	4	-9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	4	3	0	1	+4	9
2	Sp Braga	4	2	2	0	+4	8
3	Benfica	4	2	1	1	+4	7
4	Santa Clara	4	2	1	1	+3	7
5	Guimaraes	5	2	1	2	+1	7
6	Belenenses	5	1	4	0	+1	7
7	Sp Lisbon	5	2	1	2	+0	7
8	Moreirense	5	2	0	3	-5	6
9	Rio Ave	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Vitoria Setubal	5	1	2	2	-1	5
11	Nacional	4	1	2	1	-1	5
12	Tondela	4	1	1	2	+0	4
13	Boavista	5	1	1	3	-4	4
14	Feirense	4	1	0	3	-3	3
15	Maritimo	4	1	0	3	-4	3
16	Portimonense	4	1	0	3	-5	3
17	Chaves	5	1	0	4	-7	3
18	Aves	4	0	0	4	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.