Serie A
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Monza
Napoli
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | xG +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Inter
|
32 | 21 | 8 | 3 | +41 | +31.7 | 71 |
| 2 |
Napoli
|
32 | 20 | 8 | 4 | +26 | +18.9 | 68 |
| 3 |
Atalanta
|
32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | +35 | +22.7 | 61 |
| 4 |
Juventus
|
32 | 15 | 14 | 3 | +19 | +13.0 | 59 |
| 5 |
Bologna
|
32 | 15 | 12 | 5 | +14 | +11.7 | 57 |
| 6 |
Lazio
|
32 | 16 | 8 | 8 | +10 | +13.4 | 56 |
| 7 |
Roma
|
32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +15 | +10.6 | 54 |
| 8 |
Fiorentina
|
32 | 15 | 8 | 9 | +17 | +4.7 | 53 |
| 9 |
Milan
|
32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | +14 | +20.2 | 51 |
| 10 |
Torino
|
32 | 9 | 13 | 10 | -1 | -14.5 | 40 |
| 11 |
Udinese
|
32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | -10 | -9.2 | 40 |
| 12 |
Como
|
33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | -5 | +2.8 | 39 |
| 13 |
Genoa
|
32 | 9 | 12 | 11 | -9 | -7.7 | 39 |
| 14 |
Verona
|
32 | 9 | 5 | 18 | -29 | -15.9 | 32 |
| 15 |
Cagliari
|
32 | 7 | 9 | 16 | -15 | -11.7 | 30 |
| 16 |
Parma
|
32 | 5 | 13 | 14 | -14 | -15.1 | 28 |
| 17 |
Lecce
|
33 | 6 | 8 | 19 | -32 | -21.9 | 26 |
| 18 |
Venezia
|
32 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -19 | -17.8 | 24 |
| 19 |
Empoli
|
32 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -26 | -15.8 | 24 |
| 20 |
Monza
|
32 | 2 | 9 | 21 | -31 | -20.1 | 15 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
S. Turati
G
Pedro Pereira
D
L. Caldirola
D
A. Carboni
D
S. Birindelli
M
A. Bianco
M
G. Kyriakopoulos
M
Dany Mota
F
Coach: A. Nesta
A. Meret
G
G. Di Lorenzo
D
Amir Rrahmani
D
Rafa Marín
D
M. Olivera
D
B. Gilmour
M
S. Lobotka
M
S. McTominay
M
M. Politano
F
R. Lukaku
F
L. Spinazzola
F
Coach: A. Conte
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Venezia
Monza
Monza
Como
Cagliari
Monza
Monza
Parma
Inter
Monza
F La Penna · 93 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,29 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.