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Primeira Liga

Referee: António Nobre

Guimaraes

U S U S T

2–0

Full-time

Estrela

T S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes Estrela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

1,8

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 28%

36%

20%

Points per game

1,5

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

44%

36%

Both score Ø 44%

44%

Average goals

2,4

2,3

Scored

1,4

0,8

Conceded

1,1

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,00 xG 0,26

61% Possession 39%

12 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 0

2 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 2

0 Offside 4

15 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Guimaraes 6. · Estrela 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	26	19	5	2	+47	+40.3	62
2	Benfica	25	19	2	4	+39	+36.9	59
3	Porto	26	16	5	5	+31	+24.3	53
4	Sp Braga	26	16	5	5	+20	+14.9	53
5	Santa Clara	26	13	4	9	+2	+7.7	43
6	Guimaraes	25	9	11	5	+7	+9.8	38
7	Casa Pia	26	10	6	10	-3	-7.4	36
8	Estoril	26	9	9	8	-7	-14.8	36
9	Famalicao	26	8	10	8	+0	-7.7	34
10	Nacional	26	8	5	13	-10	-7.0	29
11	Rio Ave	26	7	8	11	-14	-18.4	29
12	Arouca	26	7	8	11	-14	-8.9	29
13	Moreirense	25	7	7	11	-7	-1.2	28
14	Gil Vicente	25	5	8	12	-13	-8.8	23
15	Estrela	25	5	8	12	-15	-12.5	23
16	AVS	26	4	11	11	-17	-12.9	23
17	Farense	26	3	8	15	-20	-18.6	17
18	Boavista	25	3	6	16	-26	-15.6	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	13	12	0	1	+33	+25.0	36
2	Sp Lisbon	13	11	1	1	+22	+18.8	34
3	Porto	13	10	3	0	+25	+22.5	33
4	Sp Braga	13	7	3	3	+10	+13.3	24
5	Guimaraes	12	6	5	1	+7	+7.4	23
6	Nacional	13	7	2	4	+1	-1.4	23
7	Santa Clara	13	7	2	4	+1	+10.5	23
8	Casa Pia	13	6	4	3	+4	+0.6	22
9	Estoril	13	6	4	3	+0	-4.7	22
10	Rio Ave	13	5	6	2	+1	-3.2	21
11	Moreirense	12	5	5	2	+2	-1.3	20
12	Famalicao	13	4	6	3	+1	+0.7	18
13	Gil Vicente	12	4	4	4	+3	+1.0	16
14	Estrela	13	4	4	5	-3	-5.0	16
15	AVS	13	3	5	5	-6	-7.8	14
16	Arouca	13	3	5	5	-6	-7.2	14
17	Farense	13	2	1	10	-13	-5.5	7
18	Boavista	13	1	3	9	-14	-4.3	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Braga	13	9	2	2	+10	+1.6	29
2	Sp Lisbon	13	8	4	1	+25	+21.5	28
3	Benfica	12	7	2	3	+6	+11.9	23
4	Porto	13	6	2	5	+6	+1.8	20
5	Santa Clara	13	6	2	5	+1	-2.8	20
6	Famalicao	13	4	4	5	-1	-8.4	16
7	Guimaraes	13	3	6	4	+0	+2.4	15
8	Arouca	13	4	3	6	-8	-1.7	15
9	Estoril	13	3	5	5	-7	-10.1	14
10	Casa Pia	13	4	2	7	-7	-7.9	14
11	Farense	13	1	7	5	-7	-13.2	10
12	AVS	13	1	6	6	-11	-5.1	9
13	Boavista	12	2	3	7	-12	-11.3	9
14	Moreirense	13	2	2	9	-9	+0.1	8
15	Rio Ave	13	2	2	9	-15	-15.3	8
16	Estrela	12	1	4	7	-12	-7.6	7
17	Gil Vicente	13	1	4	8	-16	-9.8	7
18	Nacional	13	1	3	9	-11	-5.6	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.