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Bundesliga

Referee: T Stieler

Union Berlin

S U S S U

4–4

Full-time

Stuttgart

T T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Union Berlin Stuttgart

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

1,7

3,8

Scored

1,0

2,2

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 35%

31%

38%

Points per game

1,2

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

45%

72%

Both score Ø 57%

45%

69%

Average goals

2,3

3,4

Scored

0,9

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–4

1,33 xG 0,94

22% Possession 78%

12 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Union Berlin 13. · Stuttgart 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	30	22	6	2	+58	+52.3	72
2	Leverkusen	29	18	9	2	+29	+22.8	63
3	Ein Frankfurt	29	15	6	8	+16	+12.5	51
4	RB Leipzig	30	13	10	7	+10	-4.5	49
5	Freiburg	30	14	6	10	-4	+0.0	48
6	Mainz	30	13	8	9	+12	-0.8	47
7	Werder Bremen	30	13	6	11	-6	+1.2	45
8	M'gladbach	29	13	5	11	+3	-7.6	44
9	Dortmund	29	12	6	11	+9	+16.2	42
10	Augsburg	29	11	9	9	-7	-13.1	42
11	Stuttgart	29	11	7	11	+6	+8.0	40
12	Wolfsburg	30	10	9	11	+6	-1.8	39
13	Union Berlin	29	9	8	12	-12	-8.9	35
14	Hoffenheim	30	7	9	14	-17	-13.3	30
15	St Pauli	29	8	5	16	-10	-7.3	29
16	Heidenheim	30	6	4	20	-28	-13.7	22
17	Holstein Kiel	30	4	7	19	-30	-19.3	19
18	Bochum	30	4	6	20	-35	-22.8	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	12	2	1	+32	+33.3	38
2	Leverkusen	15	9	4	2	+14	+15.2	31
3	Ein Frankfurt	15	9	3	3	+15	+15.2	30
4	RB Leipzig	15	8	5	2	+11	+3.8	29
5	Freiburg	15	9	2	4	+8	+1.6	29
6	Dortmund	14	8	3	3	+17	+14.4	27
7	Mainz	15	6	6	3	+6	+4.9	24
8	M'gladbach	15	7	2	6	+4	-0.4	23
9	Augsburg	14	6	4	4	+1	+1.8	22
10	Stuttgart	15	6	2	7	+5	+10.6	20
11	Union Berlin	14	5	5	4	+0	+1.7	20
12	Werder Bremen	15	5	4	6	-5	+3.9	19
13	Hoffenheim	15	4	5	6	-6	-2.3	17
14	Wolfsburg	15	3	6	6	-2	+1.5	15
15	St Pauli	14	3	4	7	-6	+1.3	13
16	Bochum	15	3	3	9	-14	-4.2	12
17	Holstein Kiel	15	3	2	10	-17	-8.2	11
18	Heidenheim	15	3	1	11	-17	-6.5	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	10	4	1	+26	+18.9	34
2	Leverkusen	14	9	5	0	+15	+7.6	32
3	Werder Bremen	15	8	2	5	-1	-2.7	26
4	Wolfsburg	15	7	3	5	+8	-3.3	24
5	Mainz	15	7	2	6	+6	-5.7	23
6	Ein Frankfurt	14	6	3	5	+1	-2.7	21
7	M'gladbach	14	6	3	5	-1	-7.2	21
8	Stuttgart	14	5	5	4	+1	-2.7	20
9	RB Leipzig	15	5	5	5	-1	-8.3	20
10	Augsburg	15	5	5	5	-8	-14.9	20
11	Freiburg	15	5	4	6	-12	-1.5	19
12	St Pauli	15	5	1	9	-4	-8.5	16
13	Dortmund	15	4	3	8	-8	+1.8	15
14	Union Berlin	15	4	3	8	-12	-10.5	15
15	Hoffenheim	15	3	4	8	-11	-11.0	13
16	Heidenheim	15	3	3	9	-11	-7.2	12
17	Holstein Kiel	15	1	5	9	-13	-11.1	8
18	Bochum	15	1	3	11	-21	-18.7	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.