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Primeira Liga

Referee: António Nobre

Benfica

S S S S S

2–2

Full-time

Arouca

T S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

4,5

2,5

Scored

3,2

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 52%

79%

25%

Points per game

2,4

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

68%

50%

Both score Ø 52%

46%

57%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

2,5

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,6

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,86 xG 1,38

55% Possession 45%

26 Shots 8

8 Shots on target 5

9 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

11 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

6 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Benfica 2. · Arouca 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	29	21	6	2	+51	+43.0	69
2	Benfica	28	22	2	4	+46	+41.4	68
3	Porto	29	18	5	6	+30	+23.6	59
4	Sp Braga	28	17	6	5	+21	+14.3	57
5	Guimaraes	29	12	12	5	+12	+10.5	48
6	Santa Clara	29	14	4	11	+0	+8.6	46
7	Famalicao	29	11	10	8	+7	-6.3	43
8	Casa Pia	29	11	7	11	-3	-9.6	40
9	Estoril	29	10	9	10	-8	-15.1	39
10	Moreirense	28	9	8	11	-5	-0.7	35
11	Nacional	29	9	5	15	-11	-8.5	32
12	Arouca	28	7	8	13	-16	-6.7	29
13	Rio Ave	28	7	8	13	-17	-17.3	29
14	Gil Vicente	29	6	8	15	-16	-11.2	26
15	Estrela	29	6	8	15	-20	-14.5	26
16	AVS	28	4	11	13	-23	-16.8	23
17	Farense	29	4	9	16	-20	-18.6	21
18	Boavista	29	4	6	19	-28	-16.1	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	14	13	0	1	+34	+25.6	39
2	Sp Lisbon	14	11	2	1	+22	+19.4	35
3	Porto	14	10	3	1	+22	+20.9	33
4	Guimaraes	14	8	5	1	+11	+7.4	29
5	Sp Braga	14	8	3	3	+11	+13.4	27
6	Santa Clara	15	8	2	5	+1	+10.7	26
7	Casa Pia	15	7	4	4	+4	-0.9	25
8	Famalicao	15	6	6	3	+7	+4.3	24
9	Moreirense	14	6	6	2	+3	-0.6	24
10	Nacional	14	7	2	5	+0	-1.9	23
11	Estoril	14	6	4	4	-1	-5.4	22
12	Rio Ave	14	5	6	3	-1	-3.3	21
13	Gil Vicente	15	4	4	7	-2	-1.5	16
14	Estrela	15	4	4	7	-7	-6.6	16
15	Arouca	14	3	5	6	-7	-5.0	14
16	AVS	14	3	5	6	-9	-10.0	14
17	Farense	14	2	2	10	-13	-4.7	8
18	Boavista	15	1	3	11	-17	-3.8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	15	10	4	1	+29	+23.5	34
2	Sp Braga	14	9	3	2	+10	+1.0	30
3	Benfica	14	9	2	3	+12	+15.8	29
4	Porto	15	8	2	5	+8	+2.7	26
5	Santa Clara	14	6	2	6	-1	-2.1	20
6	Guimaraes	15	4	7	4	+1	+3.1	19
7	Famalicao	14	5	4	5	+0	-10.6	19
8	Estoril	15	4	5	6	-7	-9.7	17
9	Casa Pia	14	4	3	7	-7	-8.7	15
10	Arouca	14	4	3	7	-9	-1.8	15
11	Farense	15	2	7	6	-7	-14.0	13
12	Boavista	14	3	3	8	-11	-12.3	12
13	Moreirense	14	3	2	9	-8	-0.1	11
14	Estrela	14	2	4	8	-13	-7.9	10
15	Gil Vicente	14	2	4	8	-14	-9.6	10
16	Nacional	15	2	3	10	-11	-6.6	9
17	AVS	14	1	6	7	-14	-6.9	9
18	Rio Ave	14	2	2	10	-16	-14.0	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.