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La Liga

Referee: Mario Melero

Barcelona

S U S S T

4–3

Full-time

Celta

S S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Celta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 55%

71%

39%

Points per game

2,3

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

71%

58%

Both score Ø 65%

61%

68%

Average goals

3,6

2,9

Scored

2,7

1,4

Conceded

0,9

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,46 xG 1,97

72% Possession 28%

18 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 8

2 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 1

10 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barcelona 1. · Celta 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	31	22	4	5	+55	+39.5	70
2	Real Madrid	31	20	6	5	+33	+27.1	66
3	Ath Madrid	31	18	9	4	+27	+22.3	63
4	Ath Bilbao	31	15	12	4	+24	+16.5	57
5	Villarreal	30	14	9	7	+13	+19.6	51
6	Betis	31	13	9	9	+3	+9.2	48
7	Celta	31	12	7	12	-1	+9.9	43
8	Mallorca	31	12	7	12	-6	+1.1	43
9	Vallecano	32	10	11	11	-4	-3.0	41
10	Sociedad	31	12	5	14	-4	+0.3	41
11	Getafe	32	10	9	13	+2	-5.7	39
12	Espanol	31	10	8	13	-6	-20.6	38
13	Osasuna	31	8	14	9	-8	-8.7	38
14	Valencia	32	9	11	12	-12	-8.7	38
15	Sevilla	31	9	9	13	-8	-9.3	36
16	Girona	31	9	7	15	-10	-4.0	34
17	Alaves	31	7	9	15	-12	-3.0	30
18	Las Palmas	31	7	8	16	-15	-27.9	29
19	Leganes	31	6	10	15	-19	-24.7	28
20	Valladolid	31	4	4	23	-52	-29.7	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	15	12	1	2	+21	+22.2	37
2	Ath Madrid	16	11	4	1	+17	+20.7	37
3	Barcelona	15	11	1	3	+30	+29.4	34
4	Ath Bilbao	16	9	6	1	+20	+12.9	33
5	Celta	16	9	3	4	+8	+6.4	30
6	Betis	16	8	5	3	+7	+15.0	29
7	Osasuna	16	7	6	3	+5	+3.4	27
8	Valencia	16	8	3	5	+4	+2.9	27
9	Espanol	16	7	6	3	+4	-5.9	27
10	Sociedad	16	7	2	7	+0	+4.4	23
11	Mallorca	16	6	5	5	-1	-0.5	23
12	Villarreal	14	5	6	3	+8	+10.3	21
13	Girona	15	6	3	6	+3	+6.5	21
14	Vallecano	16	5	6	5	-3	+4.5	21
15	Getafe	16	4	7	5	+0	+2.5	19
16	Sevilla	15	5	4	6	-5	-1.5	19
17	Leganes	16	5	3	8	-8	-9.9	18
18	Alaves	15	4	4	7	-5	+0.5	16
19	Las Palmas	15	3	5	7	-6	-6.8	14
20	Valladolid	15	3	4	8	-17	-8.5	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	16	11	3	2	+25	+10.1	36
2	Villarreal	16	9	3	4	+5	+9.3	30
3	Real Madrid	16	8	5	3	+12	+4.9	29
4	Ath Madrid	15	7	5	3	+10	+1.7	26
5	Ath Bilbao	15	6	6	3	+4	+3.6	24
6	Getafe	16	6	2	8	+2	-8.2	20
7	Vallecano	16	5	5	6	-1	-7.6	20
8	Mallorca	15	6	2	7	-5	+1.5	20
9	Betis	15	5	4	6	-4	-5.9	19
10	Sociedad	15	5	3	7	-4	-4.1	18
11	Sevilla	16	4	5	7	-3	-7.8	17
12	Las Palmas	16	4	3	9	-9	-21.0	15
13	Alaves	16	3	5	8	-7	-3.5	14
14	Celta	15	3	4	8	-9	+3.5	13
15	Girona	16	3	4	9	-13	-10.5	13
16	Espanol	15	3	2	10	-10	-14.8	11
17	Osasuna	15	1	8	6	-13	-12.1	11
18	Valencia	16	1	8	7	-16	-11.7	11
19	Leganes	15	1	7	7	-11	-14.7	10
20	Valladolid	16	1	0	15	-35	-21.3	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.