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Taça de Portugal

Referee: Cláudio Pereira

Vila Real

T U S S

0–2

Full-time

Gil Vicente

S S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vila Real Gil Vicente

Last 6 — all competitions · 4/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

83%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

1,3

3,7

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

0,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Taça de Portugal · 3/1 matches

Win Ø 84%

67%

100%

Points per game

2,3

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 0%

Both score Ø 0%

Average goals

1,0

2,0

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

0,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Vila Real 8. · Gil Vicente 43. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	São João Ver	4	3	1	0	+6	10
2	Cinfães	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Rebordosa	3	3	0	0	+5	9
4	Amarante	4	3	0	1	+4	9
5	Tirsense	3	3	0	0	+4	9
6	Lusitânia	4	3	0	1	+1	9
7	Alverca	3	2	1	0	+4	7
8	Vila Real	3	2	1	0	+3	7
9	Brito	4	2	1	1	+1	7
10	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+9	6
11	Casa Pia	2	2	0	0	+8	6
12	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+7	6
13	SC Covilha	2	2	0	0	+5	6
14	Guimaraes	2	2	0	0	+4	6
15	Varzim	2	2	0	0	+4	6
16	Anadia	3	2	0	1	+3	6
17	Moncarapachense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
18	Farense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
19	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+3	6
20	Oliveira Hospital	2	2	0	0	+3	6
21	União Santarém	3	2	0	1	+2	6
22	Moura	3	2	0	1	+2	6
23	CF Os Belenenses	3	2	0	1	+2	6
24	União de Leiria	3	2	0	1	+1	6
25	Chaves	3	2	0	1	+1	6
26	Lusitânia Lourosa	3	2	0	1	+0	6
27	Leixoes	3	2	0	1	+0	6
28	Maria da Fonte	3	2	0	1	-3	6
29	Lusitano Évora 1911	3	1	2	0	+1	5
30	Sanjoanense	3	1	1	1	+3	4
31	Rio Ave	2	1	1	0	+2	4
32	Operário	2	1	1	0	+2	4
33	O Elvas	2	1	1	0	+1	4
34	Caldas	3	1	1	1	+0	4
35	Arouca	2	1	0	1	+4	3
36	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+4	3
37	Porto	1	1	0	0	+3	3
38	Penafiel	2	1	0	1	+2	3
39	Alcains	2	1	0	1	+2	3
40	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+2	3
41	Alpendorada	2	1	0	1	+2	3
42	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+2	3
43	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+2	3
44	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+2	3
45	Portimonense	2	1	0	1	+1	3
46	AVS	2	1	0	1	+1	3
47	Atlético CP	2	1	0	1	+1	3
48	Estrela Vendas Novas	2	1	0	1	+1	3
49	Machico	2	1	0	1	+1	3
50	Ferreira Zêzere	2	1	0	1	+1	3
51	Academica	2	1	0	1	+1	3
52	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
53	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+1	3
54	Vilaverdense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
55	Os Limianos	2	1	0	1	+0	3
56	Guarda	2	1	0	1	+0	3
57	Sertanense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
58	Pacos Ferreira	2	1	0	1	+0	3
59	Torreense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
60	Régua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
61	1º Dezembro	2	1	0	1	+0	3
62	Os Marialvas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
63	Mortágua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
64	Aliança de Gandra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
65	Vieira	2	1	0	1	+0	3
66	Mafra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
67	Lagoa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
68	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
69	Vianense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
70	Pevidem	2	1	0	1	-1	3
71	Atlético Arcos	2	1	0	1	-1	3
72	Sandinenses	2	1	0	1	-1	3
73	CF Benfica	2	1	0	1	-2	3
74	Paredes	2	1	0	1	-2	3
75	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-2	3
76	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
77	Pêro Pinheiro	2	1	0	1	-2	3
78	Amora	2	1	0	1	-4	3
79	Estrela	2	1	0	1	-5	3
80	Lajense	3	1	0	2	-5	3
81	AD Marco 09	2	0	2	0	+0	2
82	Leça	1	0	1	0	+0	1
83	Beira-Mar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
84	Academico Viseu	1	0	1	0	+0	1
85	Ovarense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
86	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
87	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	1
88	Joane	1	0	1	0	+0	1
89	Fátima	1	0	1	0	+0	1
90	União de Coimbra	2	0	1	1	-2	1
91	Estarreja	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Dumiense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Coimbrões	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Bragança	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Cardielense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Oliveirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	Maia Lidador	1	0	0	1	-1	0
104	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
105	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
106	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
107	União Lamas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
108	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
109	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
110	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-1	0
111	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
112	Velense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
113	Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
114	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
115	Boavista	1	0	0	1	-1	0
116	Portel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
117	Felgueiras 1932	1	0	0	1	-1	0
118	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
119	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
120	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
121	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
122	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
123	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	0	1	-2	0
124	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-2	0
125	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
126	Sacavenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
127	Peniche	1	0	0	1	-2	0
128	Abrantes e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	0
129	Pedras Salgadas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
130	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-2	0
131	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
132	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
133	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
134	Vieirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
135	Juventude Gaula	1	0	0	1	-3	0
136	O Grandolense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
137	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-3	0
138	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-3	0
139	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
140	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
141	Macedo Cavaleiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
142	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
143	Resende	1	0	0	1	-3	0
144	Oliveira de Frades	1	0	0	1	-3	0
145	Ginásio Figueirense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
146	Praia Milfontes	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brito	3	2	1	0	+2	7
2	SC Covilha	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Cinfães	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Rebordosa	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Moncarapachense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
6	São João Ver	2	2	0	0	+4	6
7	Varzim	2	2	0	0	+4	6
8	Moura	2	2	0	0	+3	6
9	Tirsense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
10	Oliveira Hospital	2	2	0	0	+3	6
11	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
12	União Santarém	3	2	0	1	+2	6
13	Lusitano Évora 1911	3	1	2	0	+1	5
14	Alverca	2	1	1	0	+3	4
15	Vila Real	2	1	1	0	+2	4
16	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+7	3
17	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+6	3
18	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+5	3
19	Alcains	1	1	0	0	+3	3
20	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+3	3
21	Machico	1	1	0	0	+3	3
22	Louletano	1	1	0	0	+3	3
23	Alpendorada	2	1	0	1	+2	3
24	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Chaves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Vieira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Anadia	2	1	0	1	+1	3
28	Atlético CP	2	1	0	1	+1	3
29	CF Benfica	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Paredes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	CF Os Belenenses	2	1	0	1	+1	3
32	O Elvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Ferreira Zêzere	2	1	0	1	+1	3
34	Academica	2	1	0	1	+1	3
35	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Aliança de Gandra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Pêro Pinheiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Guarda	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	1º Dezembro	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	Os Marialvas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
41	Lajense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
42	Caldas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
43	Lagoa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
44	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
45	Vianense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
46	Lusitânia	2	1	0	1	-1	3
47	Leixoes	2	1	0	1	-1	3
48	Pevidem	2	1	0	1	-1	3
49	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
50	Maria da Fonte	2	1	0	1	-4	3
51	Amora	2	1	0	1	-4	3
52	Leça	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	União de Coimbra	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Ovarense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	AD Marco 09	1	0	1	0	+0	1
57	Fátima	1	0	1	0	+0	1
58	Dumiense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Penafiel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Coimbrões	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Velense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Arronches e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	Sanjoanense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Peniche	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Sandinenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Abrantes e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
82	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
83	Vieirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
84	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-3	0
85	Oliveira de Frades	1	0	0	1	-3	0
86	Ginásio Figueirense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
87	Praia Milfontes	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Farense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Lusitânia	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Amarante	3	2	0	1	-1	6
5	Sanjoanense	2	1	1	0	+5	4
6	Rio Ave	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	São João Ver	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Operário	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+5	3
10	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+5	3
11	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+4	3
12	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Porto	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Arronches e Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	Os Limianos	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Pacos Ferreira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	AVS	2	1	0	1	+1	3
24	Estrela Vendas Novas	2	1	0	1	+1	3
25	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Cinfães	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Rebordosa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Sandinenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Vila Real	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Maria da Fonte	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Vilaverdense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	Sertanense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	Torreense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	Régua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
41	Mortágua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
42	União de Leiria	2	1	0	1	+0	3
43	Mafra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
44	Chaves	2	1	0	1	-1	3
45	Atlético Arcos	2	1	0	1	-1	3
46	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-2	3
47	Estrela	2	1	0	1	-5	3
48	AD Marco 09	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Beira-Mar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Academico Viseu	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Joane	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	O Elvas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Estarreja	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Moncarapachense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Bragança	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Louletano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Cardielense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Oliveirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Maia Lidador	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	União Lamas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Alcains	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Aliança de Gandra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Brito	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Moura	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Boavista	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Portel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Felgueiras 1932	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	Sacavenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
86	Vieira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
87	Machico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
88	Pedras Salgadas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
89	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-2	0
90	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-2	0
91	CF Benfica	1	0	0	1	-3	0
92	Paredes	1	0	0	1	-3	0
93	Pêro Pinheiro	1	0	0	1	-3	0
94	Juventude Gaula	1	0	0	1	-3	0
95	O Grandolense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
96	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-3	0
97	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
98	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
99	Macedo Cavaleiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
100	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
101	Resende	1	0	0	1	-3	0
102	Lajense	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.