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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Ferreira

Moreirense

S S S S S

3–1

Full-time

Arouca

U U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Moreirense Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

2,5

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,7

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

0,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

3,0

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

3,0

1,0

Scored

2,0

0,0

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,50 xG 1,01

44% Possession 56%

14 Shots 15

6 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 5

4 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Moreirense 6. · Arouca 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+7	+4.5	6
2	Porto	2	2	0	0	+5	+3.7	6
3	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
4	Santa Clara	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.2	3
5	Benfica	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.5	3
6	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
7	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
8	Boavista	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
9	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.4	3
10	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.7	3
11	Sp Braga	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
12	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
13	AVS	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.5	1
14	Nacional	2	0	1	1	-5	-2.4	1
15	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.6	0
16	Farense	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.6	0
17	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.6	0
18	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	1	1	0	0	+3	+3.4	3
2	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.2	3
3	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
4	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.5	3
5	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
6	Rio Ave	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
7	Sp Braga	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
8	AVS	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
9	Farense	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
10	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.6	0
11	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
12	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.4	0
13	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.6	0
14	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-5	-1.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+5	+1.9	3
2	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
3	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.4	3
4	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
5	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
6	Boavista	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
7	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
8	Nacional	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
9	Farense	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
10	AVS	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0
11	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
12	Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0
13	Gil Vicente	1	0	0	1	-3	-3.4	0
14	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.