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Primeira Liga

Referee: Bruno Pires Costa

Arouca

S U U U T

1–3

Full-time

Guimaraes

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 47%

39%

55%

Points per game

1,4

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

64%

55%

Both score Ø 54%

52%

55%

Average goals

3,0

2,6

Scored

1,6

1,5

Conceded

1,4

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,49 xG 1,06

53% Possession 47%

5 Shots 9

2 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 7

2 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 19

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 7. · Guimaraes 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	33	28	3	2	+64	+43.3	87
2	Benfica	34	25	5	4	+49	+43.2	80
3	Porto	33	21	6	6	+35	+31.3	69
4	Sp Braga	33	21	5	7	+22	+19.7	68
5	Guimaraes	33	18	6	9	+12	+6.4	60
6	Moreirense	33	15	7	11	+0	+0.4	52
7	Arouca	33	13	7	13	+6	-2.6	46
8	Famalicao	34	10	12	12	-4	-10.9	42
9	Casa Pia	34	10	8	16	-12	-10.9	38
10	Farense	33	10	7	16	-3	-10.4	37
11	Rio Ave	34	6	19	9	-5	-1.0	37
12	Gil Vicente	33	9	9	15	-9	-9.3	36
13	Estoril	33	9	6	18	-8	-13.8	33
14	Boavista	33	7	10	16	-23	-19.3	31
15	Estrela	33	6	12	15	-21	-10.1	30
16	Portimonense	33	7	8	18	-35	-24.3	29
17	Vizela	33	5	10	18	-30	-10.7	25
18	Chaves	33	5	8	20	-38	-21.2	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	16	16	0	0	+43	+28.9	48
2	Benfica	17	15	2	0	+41	+32.7	47
3	Porto	17	11	4	2	+22	+23.9	37
4	Guimaraes	17	11	2	4	+13	+11.0	35
5	Sp Braga	16	10	3	3	+14	+19.9	33
6	Rio Ave	17	6	8	3	+5	+6.4	26
7	Estoril	17	8	1	8	+7	-1.4	25
8	Gil Vicente	17	6	7	4	+6	-4.3	25
9	Moreirense	16	7	4	5	+1	+1.6	25
10	Arouca	16	7	3	6	+2	+0.7	24
11	Famalicao	17	6	6	5	+0	-4.4	24
12	Farense	16	6	4	6	+3	+0.9	22
13	Boavista	16	4	7	5	-9	-3.9	19
14	Estrela	16	5	3	8	-6	-1.7	18
15	Portimonense	17	3	6	8	-13	-9.2	15
16	Casa Pia	17	3	5	9	-8	-4.8	14
17	Vizela	17	3	5	9	-12	+1.8	14
18	Chaves	17	3	4	10	-16	-7.1	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	17	12	3	2	+21	+14.4	39
2	Sp Braga	17	11	2	4	+8	-0.1	35
3	Benfica	17	10	3	4	+8	+10.5	33
4	Porto	16	10	2	4	+13	+7.4	32
5	Moreirense	17	8	3	6	-1	-1.1	27
6	Guimaraes	16	7	4	5	-1	-4.6	25
7	Casa Pia	17	7	3	7	-4	-6.1	24
8	Arouca	17	6	4	7	+4	-3.3	22
9	Famalicao	17	4	6	7	-4	-6.4	18
10	Farense	17	4	3	10	-6	-11.3	15
11	Portimonense	16	4	2	10	-22	-15.1	14
12	Boavista	17	3	3	11	-14	-15.4	12
13	Estrela	17	1	9	7	-15	-8.4	12
14	Rio Ave	17	0	11	6	-10	-7.3	11
15	Gil Vicente	16	3	2	11	-15	-5.0	11
16	Vizela	16	2	5	9	-18	-12.6	11
17	Chaves	16	2	4	10	-22	-14.2	10
18	Estoril	16	1	5	10	-15	-12.5	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.