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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Sp Lisbon

U U S S S

2–1

Full-time

Maritimo

T S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Maritimo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,3

3,8

Scored

1,7

2,0

Conceded

0,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 44%

68%

19%

Points per game

2,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

68%

58%

Both score Ø 49%

42%

55%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

2,1

0,9

Conceded

0,9

1,9

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

77% Possession 23%

15 Shots 2

3 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 1

1 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 10

6 Yellow cards 7

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 4. · Maritimo 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	32	27	2	3	+59	83
2	Porto	31	24	4	3	+45	76
3	Sp Braga	31	23	2	6	+40	71
4	Sp Lisbon	31	21	4	6	+37	67
5	Arouca	31	13	9	9	-2	48
6	Guimaraes	31	14	5	12	-4	47
7	Chaves	32	12	10	10	-1	46
8	Famalicao	32	13	4	15	-6	43
9	Vizela	32	11	7	14	-2	40
10	Casa Pia	31	11	7	13	-7	40
11	Boavista	32	11	7	14	-14	40
12	Rio Ave	31	10	9	12	-4	39
13	Gil Vicente	32	9	7	16	-9	34
14	Portimonense	32	10	4	18	-20	34
15	Estoril	31	8	4	19	-20	28
16	Maritimo	31	6	5	20	-29	23
17	Pacos Ferreira	32	5	5	22	-35	20
18	Santa Clara	31	4	7	20	-28	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	16	14	1	1	+33	43
2	Porto	15	13	0	2	+29	39
3	Sp Lisbon	15	12	1	2	+29	37
4	Sp Braga	15	11	2	2	+24	35
5	Guimaraes	16	9	3	4	+5	30
6	Arouca	16	9	2	5	+4	29
7	Boavista	16	8	5	3	+2	29
8	Famalicao	16	9	1	6	+4	28
9	Rio Ave	15	8	2	5	+5	26
10	Chaves	16	6	5	5	+2	23
11	Casa Pia	16	6	4	6	+1	22
12	Gil Vicente	16	5	6	5	+0	21
13	Portimonense	16	6	3	7	-5	21
14	Vizela	16	5	4	7	+0	19
15	Maritimo	16	5	3	8	-3	18
16	Estoril	15	5	2	8	-8	17
17	Santa Clara	16	3	5	8	-12	14
18	Pacos Ferreira	16	2	2	12	-22	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	16	13	1	2	+26	40
2	Porto	16	11	4	1	+16	37
3	Sp Braga	16	12	0	4	+16	36
4	Sp Lisbon	16	9	3	4	+8	30
5	Chaves	16	6	5	5	-3	23
6	Vizela	16	6	3	7	-2	21
7	Arouca	15	4	7	4	-6	19
8	Casa Pia	15	5	3	7	-8	18
9	Guimaraes	15	5	2	8	-9	17
10	Famalicao	16	4	3	9	-10	15
11	Gil Vicente	16	4	1	11	-9	13
12	Rio Ave	16	2	7	7	-9	13
13	Portimonense	16	4	1	11	-15	13
14	Pacos Ferreira	16	3	3	10	-13	12
15	Estoril	16	3	2	11	-12	11
16	Boavista	16	3	2	11	-16	11
17	Santa Clara	15	1	2	12	-16	5
18	Maritimo	15	1	2	12	-26	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.