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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Arouca

S U S U S

1–0

Full-time

Maritimo

S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Maritimo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,5

3,3

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

0,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 31%

42%

19%

Points per game

1,6

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

35%

54%

Both score Ø 44%

38%

50%

Average goals

2,4

2,7

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

51% Possession 49%

11 Shots 15

2 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 8

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 11

2 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 5. · Maritimo 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	27	23	2	2	+52	71
2	Porto	27	20	4	3	+40	64
3	Sp Braga	26	19	2	5	+33	59
4	Sp Lisbon	26	17	3	6	+29	54
5	Arouca	26	11	8	7	-2	41
6	Guimaraes	27	12	5	10	-5	41
7	Vizela	27	11	5	11	+3	38
8	Casa Pia	26	11	5	10	-4	38
9	Rio Ave	26	9	6	11	-4	33
10	Famalicao	26	10	3	13	-8	33
11	Boavista	27	9	6	12	-13	33
12	Chaves	26	8	8	10	-6	32
13	Gil Vicente	26	8	6	12	-6	30
14	Portimonense	26	8	2	16	-15	26
15	Estoril	26	7	4	15	-17	25
16	Maritimo	26	5	4	17	-28	19
17	Pacos Ferreira	26	4	5	17	-24	17
18	Santa Clara	27	3	6	18	-25	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	14	12	1	1	+31	37
2	Sp Lisbon	13	11	0	2	+28	33
3	Porto	13	11	0	2	+27	33
4	Guimaraes	14	8	3	3	+4	27
5	Sp Braga	12	8	2	2	+17	26
6	Arouca	13	7	2	4	+3	23
7	Boavista	14	6	5	3	+0	23
8	Rio Ave	13	7	1	5	+4	22
9	Famalicao	13	7	1	5	+3	22
10	Casa Pia	13	6	3	4	+3	21
11	Vizela	13	5	2	6	+1	17
12	Gil Vicente	13	4	5	4	+0	17
13	Portimonense	13	5	2	6	-2	17
14	Chaves	13	3	5	5	-2	14
15	Maritimo	13	4	2	7	-4	14
16	Estoril	13	4	2	7	-10	14
17	Santa Clara	14	2	4	8	-13	10
18	Pacos Ferreira	13	2	2	9	-14	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	13	11	1	1	+21	34
2	Sp Braga	14	11	0	3	+16	33
3	Porto	14	9	4	1	+13	31
4	Vizela	14	6	3	5	+2	21
5	Sp Lisbon	13	6	3	4	+1	21
6	Chaves	13	5	3	5	-4	18
7	Arouca	13	4	6	3	-5	18
8	Casa Pia	13	5	2	6	-7	17
9	Guimaraes	13	4	2	7	-9	14
10	Gil Vicente	13	4	1	8	-6	13
11	Estoril	13	3	2	8	-7	11
12	Rio Ave	13	2	5	6	-8	11
13	Famalicao	13	3	2	8	-11	11
14	Boavista	13	3	1	9	-13	10
15	Pacos Ferreira	13	2	3	8	-10	9
16	Portimonense	13	3	0	10	-13	9
17	Santa Clara	13	1	2	10	-12	5
18	Maritimo	13	1	2	10	-24	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.